Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / Nagykanizsai ULE vs Fehérvár FC

Prediction Audit: Nagykanizsai ULE vs Fehérvár FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nagykanizsai ULE Nagykanizsai ULE
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Fehérvár FC Fehérvár FC

The model missed the final outcome (Nagykanizsai ULE win 1–0).

The model had projected Fehérvár FC at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fehérvár FC Nagykanizsai ULE ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Fehérvár FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Fehérvár FC -11.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nagykanizsai ULE 34.2% 24.7% +9.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.7% +1.9 pp Aligned
Fehérvár FC 36.1% 47.6% -11.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Fehérvár FC's win probability at 47.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 11.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Nagykanizsai ULE win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Fehérvár FC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Fehérvár FC; match finished Nagykanizsai ULE

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fehérvár FC by 11.5 percentage points (47.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:05 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nagykanizsai ULE 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Fehérvár FC 36.1%
    • xG · Nagykanizsai ULE 1.28 — Fehérvár FC 1.32
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:42 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nagykanizsai ULE 3.66 · Draw 3.26 · Fehérvár FC 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Nagykanizsai ULE 24.7% · Draw 27.7% · Fehérvár FC 47.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Nagykanizsai ULE 3.66 · Draw 3.26 · Fehérvár FC 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Nagykanizsai ULE 24.7% · Draw 27.7% · Fehérvár FC 47.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nagykanizsai ULE win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 42/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8683393

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nagykanizsai ULE win · Nagykanizsai ULE 1–0 Fehérvár FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Nagykanizsai ULE vs Fehérvár FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Nagykanizsai ULE 1.28 — Fehérvár FC 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Soroksar 8 6 2 0 20
2 Kecskeméti TE 8 5 2 1 17
3 Tiszakecske FC 8 4 4 0 16
4 Ajka 7 4 2 1 14
5 Kazincbarcikai 8 3 4 1 13
6 Gyirmot SE 8 4 1 3 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 4 0 3 12
8 Karcag SE 8 2 5 1 11
9 Szentlőrinc SE 7 3 1 3 10
10 Fehérvár FC 8 3 0 5 9
11 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 3 0 5 9
12 Diosgyori VTK 7 2 1 4 7
13 Szeged 2011 7 1 3 3 6
14 BVSC 7 1 1 5 4
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 1 1 6 4
16 Csakvar 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Soroksar 8 23 7 +16 20
2 Tiszakecske FC 8 17 10 +7 16
3 Kecskeméti TE 8 15 8 +7 17
4 Kazincbarcikai 8 13 11 +2 13
5 Karcag SE 8 13 11 +2 11
6 Gyirmot SE 8 13 14 -1 13
7 Mezokovesd-zsory 7 11 8 +3 12
8 Fehérvár FC 8 11 11 0 9
9 Ajka 7 9 6 +3 14
10 Szentlőrinc SE 7 8 9 -1 10
11 Diosgyori VTK 7 8 15 -7 7
12 Csakvar 8 8 19 -11 4
13 Nagykanizsai ULE 8 7 10 -3 9
14 Szeged 2011 7 6 8 -2 6
15 Kozarmisleny FC 8 6 16 -10 4
16 BVSC 7 4 9 -5 4