Kitakyushu vs Iwaki Statistics & Analysis

Kitakyushu

Sep 02, 2026 - 10:00

1 1.29

0 1.31

xG Accuracy: 64%

Iwaki

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Iwaki Kitakyushu ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5651580

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Kitakyushu win · Kitakyushu 1–0 Iwaki

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: J-League Cup
Fixture: Kitakyushu vs Iwaki
Kickoff: 2026-09-02 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Kitakyushu 1.29 — Iwaki 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 45.1% · Probability edge: +3.1 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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