Predictions / Football / Japan. J-League Cup / Consadole Sapporo vs Fagiano Okayama

Prediction Audit: Consadole Sapporo vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo
Sep 29, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama

The model missed the final outcome (Fagiano Okayama win 1–2).

The model had projected Consadole Sapporo at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Consadole Sapporo Fagiano Okayama ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Fagiano Okayama higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Fagiano Okayama -27.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Consadole Sapporo 36.1% 18.4% +17.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 20.1% +9.5 pp Model Higher
Fagiano Okayama 34.2% 61.5% -27.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Fagiano Okayama's win probability at 61.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 27.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Fagiano Okayama win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Consadole Sapporo; match finished Fagiano Okayama

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Consadole Sapporo by 27.3 percentage points (63.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 29, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Consadole Sapporo 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Fagiano Okayama 34.2%
    • xG · Consadole Sapporo 1.32 — Fagiano Okayama 1.28
  2. Sep 29, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Consadole Sapporo 5.13 · Draw 4.68 · Fagiano Okayama 1.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Consadole Sapporo 18.4% · Draw 20.1% · Fagiano Okayama 61.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 29, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Consadole Sapporo 5.13 · Draw 4.68 · Fagiano Okayama 1.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Consadole Sapporo 18.4% · Draw 20.1% · Fagiano Okayama 61.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Fagiano Okayama win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10417758

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fagiano Okayama win · Consadole Sapporo 1–2 Fagiano Okayama
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: J-League Cup
  • Fixture: Consadole Sapporo vs Fagiano Okayama
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-29 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Consadole Sapporo 1.32 — Fagiano Okayama 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +11.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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