Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Tomayapo Statistics & Analysis

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Jul 07, 2026 - 23:00

3 3.27

2 0.79

xG Accuracy: 67%

Real Tomayapo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Gualberto Villarroel SJ Gualberto Villarroel SJ ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 3-0, 2-0, 4-0, 3-1, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 15:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1729585

Closing Odds 1.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Gualberto Villarroel SJ win · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3–2 Real Tomayapo

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Gualberto Villarroel SJ (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Gualberto Villarroel SJ (1X2) by about 20.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Gualberto Villarroel SJ (1X2)	83.8	63.7	+20.1
Draw (1X2)	11.2	20.5	-9.3
Real Tomayapo (1X2)	5.0	15.8	-10.8
Over 2.5 goals	77.0	63.3	+13.7
Under 2.5 goals	22.9	36.7	-13.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 83.8% on Gualberto Villarroel SJ (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 63.7%. The difference — about 20.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Gualberto Villarroel SJ (1X2)	1.44	1.44
Draw (1X2)	4.48	4.48
Real Tomayapo (1X2)	5.8	5.8
Over 2.5 goals	1.47	1.47
Under 2.5 goals	2.54	2.54

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera División
Fixture: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Tomayapo
Kickoff: 2026-07-07 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 83.9% · Draw 11.2% · Away 5.0%
xG (showing): Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3.27 — Real Tomayapo 0.79 (total xG ≈ 4.06)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 77.0% · Implied: 65.1% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +13.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.1% · No 46.9%
Correct score (top bin): 3-0 (10.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Always Ready	19	12	6	1	42
2	Bolívar	18	12	3	3	39
3	The Strongest	19	11	6	2	39
4	Aurora	19	7	9	3	30
5	Real Potosí	19	7	8	4	29
6	Oriente Petrolero	19	8	3	8	27
7	Nacional Potosí	19	8	3	8	27
8	Blooming	19	6	8	5	26
9	Guabirá	19	7	5	7	26
10	Independiente Petrolero	19	7	4	8	25
11	Real Oruro	19	6	3	10	21
12	ABB	19	6	2	11	20
13	Universitario de Vinto	19	5	2	12	17
14	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	19	5	2	12	17
15	Real Tomayapo	18	4	4	10	16
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	19	2	8	9	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bolívar	18	48	19	+29	39
2	Always Ready	19	43	13	+30	42
3	The Strongest	19	37	21	+16	39
4	Oriente Petrolero	19	34	27	+7	27
5	Real Oruro	19	32	48	-16	21
6	Aurora	19	30	24	+6	30
7	Nacional Potosí	19	30	24	+6	27
8	ABB	19	30	43	-13	20
9	Blooming	19	29	21	+8	26
10	Guabirá	19	29	38	-9	26
11	Independiente Petrolero	19	26	32	-6	25
12	Real Potosí	19	25	14	+11	29
13	Universitario de Vinto	19	25	38	-13	17
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	19	19	33	-14	14
15	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	19	18	39	-21	17
16	Real Tomayapo	18	14	35	-21	16

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bolívar	18	1.6	1.4	+0.2	39
2	Real Potosí	19	1.4	1.6	-0.2	29
3	Always Ready	19	—	—	—	42
4	The Strongest	19	—	—	—	39
5	Aurora	19	—	—	—	30
6	Oriente Petrolero	19	—	—	—	27
7	Nacional Potosí	19	—	—	—	27
8	Blooming	19	—	—	—	26
9	Guabirá	19	—	—	—	26
10	Independiente Petrolero	19	—	—	—	25
11	Real Oruro	19	—	—	—	21
12	ABB	19	—	—	—	20
13	Universitario de Vinto	19	—	—	—	17
14	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	19	—	—	—	17
15	Real Tomayapo	18	—	—	—	16
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	19	—	—	—	14