Statistics / Football / Latvia. 1. Liga / Leevon / PPK vs Rēzekne FA

Leevon / PPK vs Rēzekne FA Statistics & Analysis

Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK
Aug 01, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 79%
Rēzekne FA Rēzekne FA
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1819008

Closing Odds 1.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Leevon / PPK win · Leevon / PPK 2–1 Rēzekne FA
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Rēzekne FA (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Rēzekne FA (1X2) by about 21.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Leevon / PPK (1X2) 39.0 75.6 -36.6
Draw (1X2) 29.5 14.0 +15.6
Rēzekne FA (1X2) 31.5 10.4 +21.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Rēzekne FA (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 10.4%. The difference — about 21.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Leevon / PPK (1X2) 1.17 1.17 0.0
Draw (1X2) 6.32 6.32 0.0
Rēzekne FA (1X2) 8.46 8.46 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Leevon / PPK; market prices Leevon / PPK instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Leevon / PPK 1.38 xG vs Rēzekne FA 1.22 → Leevon / PPK 39.0%
  • Market: Leevon / PPK ~75.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Leevon / PPK & Rēzekne FA!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
1. Liga 1. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metta / LU 20 16 3 1 51
2 Valmiera / BSS 20 16 3 1 51
3 Leevon / PPK 20 14 4 2 46
4 Riga Mariners 20 13 5 2 44
5 JDFS Alberts 20 11 4 5 37
6 Mārupe 20 9 1 10 28
7 Super Nova 2 20 6 7 7 25
8 Riga FC II 20 7 4 9 25
9 Skanste 19 7 2 10 23
10 Rīgas FS II 19 4 3 12 15
11 Smiltene 20 3 4 13 13
12 JFK Ventspils 19 2 6 11 12
13 Tukums II 19 3 3 13 12
14 Rēzekne FA 20 1 3 16 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metta / LU 20 86 16 +70 51
2 Valmiera / BSS 20 58 19 +39 51
3 Riga Mariners 20 46 21 +25 44
4 JDFS Alberts 20 41 28 +13 37
5 Skanste 19 39 38 +1 23
6 Leevon / PPK 20 37 22 +15 46
7 Mārupe 20 34 32 +2 28
8 Riga FC II 20 29 37 -8 25
9 Super Nova 2 20 28 30 -2 25
10 Rīgas FS II 19 28 52 -24 15
11 Smiltene 20 27 57 -30 13
12 Tukums II 19 23 59 -36 12
13 JFK Ventspils 19 20 40 -20 12
14 Rēzekne FA 20 16 61 -45 6
1. Liga Latvia. 1. Liga Predictions