Predictions / Football / Latvia. 1. Liga / Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene

Prediction Audit: Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Super Nova 2
Sep 19, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
Smiltene Smiltene

The model missed the final outcome (Smiltene win 0–2).

The model had projected Super Nova 2 at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Super Nova 2 Smiltene ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Super Nova 2 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Super Nova 2 -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Super Nova 2 38.0% 48.8% -10.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.1% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Smiltene 32.4% 27.1% +5.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Super Nova 2's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Smiltene win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Super Nova 2 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Super Nova 2; match finished Smiltene
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Super Nova 2 by 10.8 percentage points (48.8% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Super Nova 2 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Smiltene 32.4%
    • xG · Super Nova 2 1.36 — Smiltene 1.24
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Super Nova 2 1.82 · Draw 3.69 · Smiltene 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Super Nova 2 48.8% · Draw 24.1% · Smiltene 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Super Nova 2 1.82 · Draw 3.69 · Smiltene 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Super Nova 2 48.8% · Draw 24.1% · Smiltene 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Smiltene win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8697032

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Smiltene win · Super Nova 2 0–2 Smiltene
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Liga
  • Fixture: Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Super Nova 2 1.36 — Smiltene 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.5% · Probability edge: +15.3 pts · Est. EV: +36.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga 1. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 17 3 1 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 16 3 2 51
3 Leevon / PPK 21 15 4 2 49
4 Riga Mariners 21 14 5 2 47
5 JDFS Alberts 21 11 4 6 37
6 Mārupe 21 9 2 10 29
7 Skanste 21 8 2 11 26
8 Riga FC II 21 7 5 9 26
9 Super Nova 2 21 6 7 8 25
10 Tukums II 21 5 3 13 18
11 Smiltene 21 4 4 13 16
12 JFK Ventspils 21 3 6 12 15
13 Rīgas FS II 21 4 3 14 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 89 17 +72 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 60 23 +37 51
3 Riga Mariners 21 50 23 +27 47
4 Leevon / PPK 21 43 25 +18 49
5 Skanste 21 43 42 +1 26
6 JDFS Alberts 21 42 31 +11 37
7 Mārupe 21 34 32 +2 29
8 Rīgas FS II 21 34 62 -28 15
9 Riga FC II 21 29 37 -8 26
10 Smiltene 21 29 57 -28 16
11 Super Nova 2 21 28 32 -4 25
12 Tukums II 21 27 60 -33 18
13 JFK Ventspils 21 21 41 -20 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 17 64 -47 6