Predictions / Football / Latvia. 1. Liga / Mārupe vs Riga FC II

Prediction Audit: Mārupe vs Riga FC II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mārupe Mārupe
Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 49%
Riga FC II Riga FC II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Riga FC II at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Riga FC II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Mārupe higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mārupe -7.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mārupe 33.3% 41.1% -7.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.3% +4.3 pp Aligned
Riga FC II 37.1% 33.5% +3.5 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Mārupe's win probability at 41.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Mārupe. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Riga FC II; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Riga FC II by 7.8 percentage points (44.9% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mārupe 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Riga FC II 37.0%
    • xG · Mārupe 1.26 — Riga FC II 1.34
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mārupe 2.16 · Draw 3.51 · Riga FC II 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Mārupe 41.1% · Draw 25.3% · Riga FC II 33.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Mārupe 2.16 · Draw 3.51 · Riga FC II 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Mārupe 41.1% · Draw 25.3% · Riga FC II 33.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8684248

Closing Odds 2.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Mārupe 0–0 Riga FC II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Liga
  • Fixture: Mārupe vs Riga FC II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Mārupe 1.26 — Riga FC II 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 34.5% · Probability edge: +11.0 pts · Est. EV: +22.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga 1. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 17 3 1 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 16 3 2 51
3 Leevon / PPK 21 15 4 2 49
4 Riga Mariners 21 14 5 2 47
5 JDFS Alberts 21 11 4 6 37
6 Mārupe 21 9 2 10 29
7 Skanste 21 8 2 11 26
8 Riga FC II 21 7 5 9 26
9 Super Nova 2 21 6 7 8 25
10 Tukums II 21 5 3 13 18
11 Smiltene 21 4 4 13 16
12 JFK Ventspils 21 3 6 12 15
13 Rīgas FS II 21 4 3 14 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 89 17 +72 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 60 23 +37 51
3 Riga Mariners 21 50 23 +27 47
4 Leevon / PPK 21 43 25 +18 49
5 Skanste 21 43 42 +1 26
6 JDFS Alberts 21 42 31 +11 37
7 Mārupe 21 34 32 +2 29
8 Rīgas FS II 21 34 62 -28 15
9 Riga FC II 21 29 37 -8 26
10 Smiltene 21 29 57 -28 16
11 Super Nova 2 21 28 32 -4 25
12 Tukums II 21 27 60 -33 18
13 JFK Ventspils 21 21 41 -20 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 17 64 -47 6