Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Eskilsminne vs Rosengård

Eskilsminne vs Rosengård Statistics & Analysis

Eskilsminne Eskilsminne
Aug 08, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.48
0 1.12
xG Accuracy: 49%
Rosengård Rosengård
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Eskilsminne Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2811095

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Eskilsminne 0–0 Rosengård
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Eskilsminne (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Eskilsminne (1X2) by about 12.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Eskilsminne (1X2) 43.9 31.2 +12.7
Draw (1X2) 29.1 25.8 +3.3
Rosengård (1X2) 27.1 43.0 -16.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 59.8 -11.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 40.2 +11.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 43.9% on Eskilsminne (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.2%. The difference — about 12.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Eskilsminne (1X2) 2.94 2.94 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.56 3.56 0.0
Rosengård (1X2) 2.13 2.13 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.56 1.56 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.32 2.32 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Eskilsminne vs Rosengård
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
  • xG (showing): Eskilsminne 1.48 — Rosengård 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 46.4% · Implied: 37.2% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +22.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 21 12 6 3 42
2 Hässleholms IF 21 12 3 6 39
3 Atvidabergs FF 21 11 6 4 39
4 Lund 21 10 8 3 38
5 Rosengård 21 9 7 5 34
6 Tvååker 21 9 6 6 33
7 AFC Malmo 21 8 8 5 32
8 Trollhättan 21 7 7 7 28
9 Skövde AIK 21 6 9 6 27
10 Jonkopings Sodra 20 7 5 8 26
11 Olympic 21 8 2 11 26
12 Eskilsminne 21 7 4 10 25
13 Laholm 21 6 3 12 21
14 Kristianstad 20 5 5 10 20
15 Angelholms FF 21 3 8 10 17
16 Utsikten 21 1 5 15 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atvidabergs FF 21 45 32 +13 39
2 trelleborgs FF 21 44 24 +20 42
3 Lund 21 44 26 +18 38
4 Hässleholms IF 21 41 26 +15 39
5 AFC Malmo 21 39 31 +8 32
6 Olympic 21 38 43 -5 26
7 Rosengård 21 35 28 +7 34
8 Trollhättan 21 33 33 0 28
9 Eskilsminne 21 32 38 -6 25
10 Tvååker 21 28 28 0 33
11 Laholm 21 28 38 -10 21
12 Jonkopings Sodra 20 25 20 +5 26
13 Kristianstad 20 25 33 -8 20
14 Angelholms FF 21 25 39 -14 17
15 Skövde AIK 21 23 29 -6 27
16 Utsikten 21 17 54 -37 8
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