Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Eskilsminne vs Tvååker

Prediction Audit: Eskilsminne vs Tvååker Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Eskilsminne Eskilsminne
Sep 17, 2026 - 17:00
4 1.41
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 39%
Tvååker Tvååker

AI correctly predicted the Eskilsminne win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Eskilsminne Eskilsminne ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Tvååker higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tvååker -6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Eskilsminne 40.4% 38.5% +1.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 24.9% +4.6 pp Aligned
Tvååker 30.1% 36.7% -6.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tvååker's win probability at 36.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Eskilsminne win 4–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Tvååker. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Eskilsminne higher (46.9% vs model 40.4%, 6.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Eskilsminne win 4–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Eskilsminne 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Tvååker 30.1%
    • xG · Eskilsminne 1.41 — Tvååker 1.19
  2. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Eskilsminne 2.41 · Draw 3.73 · Tvååker 2.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Eskilsminne 38.5% · Draw 24.9% · Tvååker 36.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 17, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Eskilsminne 2.41 · Draw 3.73 · Tvååker 2.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Eskilsminne 38.5% · Draw 24.9% · Tvååker 36.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Eskilsminne win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 67/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 03:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7998193

Closing Odds 2.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Eskilsminne win · Eskilsminne 4–2 Tvååker
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Eskilsminne vs Tvååker
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-17 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Eskilsminne 1.41 — Tvååker 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.8% · Implied: 37.9% · Probability edge: +8.0 pts · Est. EV: +20.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 24 11 8 5 41
5 AFC Malmo 24 10 8 6 38
6 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
7 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 24 8 5 11 29
13 Kristianstad 24 7 6 11 27
14 Laholm 24 6 4 14 22
15 Angelholms FF 24 3 9 12 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 24 46 28 +18 41
4 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
5 AFC Malmo 24 44 35 +9 38
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 24 39 44 -5 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 24 31 43 -12 22
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 24 29 36 -7 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 24 28 47 -19 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
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