Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Utsikten vs Laholm

Prediction Audit: Utsikten vs Laholm Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Utsikten Utsikten
Sep 16, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Laholm Laholm

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Utsikten at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Utsikten Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Laholm higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Laholm -21.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Utsikten 36.1% 23.9% +12.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 20.0% +9.6 pp Model Higher
Laholm 34.2% 56.1% -21.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Laholm's win probability at 56.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 21.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Utsikten; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Utsikten by 21.9 percentage points (58.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Utsikten 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Laholm 34.2%
    • xG · Utsikten 1.32 — Laholm 1.28
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Utsikten 3.88 · Draw 4.62 · Laholm 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Utsikten 23.9% · Draw 20.0% · Laholm 56.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Utsikten 3.88 · Draw 4.62 · Laholm 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Utsikten 23.9% · Draw 20.0% · Laholm 56.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7925203

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Utsikten 0–0 Laholm
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Utsikten vs Laholm
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Utsikten 1.32 — Laholm 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 35.8% · Probability edge: +16.0 pts · Est. EV: +38.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 24 11 8 5 41
5 AFC Malmo 24 10 8 6 38
6 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
7 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 24 8 5 11 29
13 Kristianstad 24 7 6 11 27
14 Laholm 24 6 4 14 22
15 Angelholms FF 24 3 9 12 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 24 46 28 +18 41
4 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
5 AFC Malmo 24 44 35 +9 38
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 24 39 44 -5 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 24 31 43 -12 22
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 24 29 36 -7 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 24 28 47 -19 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
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