Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie / Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Statistics & Analysis

Feyenoord Feyenoord
May 10, 2026 - 14:45
1 1.54
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 80%
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Feyenoord Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eredivisie
  • Fixture: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.1% · Draw 28.1% · Away 29.9%
  • xG (showing): Feyenoord 1.54 — AZ Alkmaar 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.81)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 46.7% · Implied: 37.0% · Probability edge: +9.7 pts · Est. EV: +35.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.0% · No 42.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: Under 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics
Eredivisie Eredivisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 32 25 3 4 78
2 Feyenoord 32 18 7 7 61
3 NEC Nijmegen 32 15 11 6 56
4 Ajax 32 14 13 5 55
5 Twente 32 14 13 5 55
6 AZ Alkmaar 32 14 8 10 50
7 Heerenveen 32 14 8 10 50
8 Utrecht 32 13 8 11 47
9 Sparta Rotterdam 32 12 7 13 43
10 Groningen 32 12 6 14 42
11 GO Ahead Eagles 32 8 14 10 38
12 PEC Zwolle 32 9 10 13 37
13 Fortuna Sittard 32 10 6 16 36
14 Excelsior 32 9 7 16 34
15 Telstar 32 7 10 15 31
16 FC Volendam 32 8 7 17 31
17 NAC Breda 32 5 10 17 25
18 Heracles 32 5 4 23 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 32 92 43 +49 78
2 NEC Nijmegen 32 74 50 +24 56
3 Feyenoord 32 67 43 +24 61
4 Ajax 32 61 39 +22 55
5 Heerenveen 32 57 51 +6 50
6 Twente 32 54 35 +19 55
7 AZ Alkmaar 32 54 47 +7 50
8 GO Ahead Eagles 32 52 47 +5 38
9 Utrecht 32 51 41 +10 47
10 Fortuna Sittard 32 46 59 -13 36
11 Groningen 32 45 43 +2 42
12 Telstar 32 44 54 -10 31
13 PEC Zwolle 32 42 66 -24 37
14 Excelsior 32 39 53 -14 34
15 Sparta Rotterdam 32 38 55 -17 43
16 Heracles 32 34 80 -46 19
17 FC Volendam 32 33 52 -19 31
18 NAC Breda 32 30 55 -25 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 32 67.2 35.9 +31.3 78
2 Feyenoord 32 63.9 36.5 +27.4 61
3 Twente 32 58.9 33.7 +25.2 55
4 AZ Alkmaar 32 60.5 40.4 +20.1 50
5 NEC Nijmegen 32 57.1 45.6 +11.5 56
6 Groningen 32 56.8 45.6 +11.2 42
7 Heerenveen 32 56.7 47.5 +9.2 50
8 Ajax 32 51.6 44.0 +7.6 55
9 Utrecht 32 47.9 43.9 +4.0 47
10 Sparta Rotterdam 32 40.0 47.1 -7.1 43
11 Telstar 32 45.9 57.2 -11.3 31
12 NAC Breda 32 37.3 48.9 -11.6 25
13 Excelsior 32 43.2 56.6 -13.4 34
14 GO Ahead Eagles 32 41.4 57.9 -16.5 38
15 Fortuna Sittard 32 39.4 56.4 -17.0 36
16 PEC Zwolle 32 35.5 55.4 -19.9 37
17 FC Volendam 32 33.4 57.9 -24.5 31
18 Heracles 32 38.5 64.5 -26.0 19
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