The model missed the final outcome (Club Guaraní win 0–1).
The model had projected Sportivo Trinidense at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Sportivo Trinidense Club Guaraní ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Trinidense | 39.0% | 42.9% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 33.4% | 29.9% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Club Guaraní | 27.7% | 27.1% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Club Guaraní win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.08, 1 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Sportivo Trinidense; match finished Club Guaraní
Market lesson
The full-time result was Club Guaraní win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sportivo Trinidense 38.9% · Draw 33.4% · Club Guaraní 27.7%
- xG · Sportivo Trinidense 1.15 — Club Guaraní 0.93
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sportivo Trinidense 2.22 · Draw 3.18 · Club Guaraní 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Trinidense 42.9% · Draw 29.9% · Club Guaraní 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sportivo Trinidense 2.22 · Draw 3.18 · Club Guaraní 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Trinidense 42.9% · Draw 29.9% · Club Guaraní 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Club Guaraní win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
80/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.22
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Club Guaraní win · Sportivo Trinidense 0–1 Club Guaraní
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"ev": -0.0848,
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},
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"text": "-1.7%"
},
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"show_primary_label": true,
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"sort_key": 1795.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"alert_team": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.9,
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"hero_edge_pp": -3.93,
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"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
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"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1135,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1135,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sportivo Trinidense at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sportivo Trinidense as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0848,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -14.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.93,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.93,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -15.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.15,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.15,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.15 \u00b7 Away xG 0.93 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -15%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"steam_team": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1135,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1135,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sportivo Trinidense at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sportivo Trinidense as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0848,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -14.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Trinidense 1.15 xG vs Club Guaran\u00ed 0.93 \u2192 Sportivo Trinidense 39.0%",
"Market: Sportivo Trinidense ~42.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Club Guaran\u00ed odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sportivo Trinidense with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob": 38.98,
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob": 42.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"fair_prob": 33.35,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.53,
"fair_prob": 27.67,
"label": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"market_prob": 27.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.66,
"fair_prob": 34.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.66,
"fair_prob": 65.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob": 43.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.13,
"fair_prob": 56.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.98,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob_pct": 42.91,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Club Guaran\u00ed"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Sportivo Trinidense \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Trinidense 1.15 xG vs Club Guaran\u00ed 0.93 \u2192 Sportivo Trinidense 39.0%",
"Market: Sportivo Trinidense ~42.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Club Guaran\u00ed odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sportivo Trinidense with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.93,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Club Guaran\u00ed odds lengthened \u2191 +3.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Club Guaran\u00ed has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Club Guaran\u00ed \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Club Guaran\u00ed has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Club Guaran\u00ed \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Club Guaran\u00ed has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Club Guaran\u00ed."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.93,
"edge_pp": -3.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.98,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob_pct": 42.91,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.4,
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.53,
"edge_pp": 0.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"market_prob_pct": 27.14,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Club Guaran\u00ed \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sportivo Trinidense (42.9%).",
"Club Guaran\u00ed odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.2%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Sportivo Trinidense \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.05,
"closing_odds": 2.22,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.05,
"entry_odds": 2.22,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Club Guaran\u00ed (3.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.51",
"3.30",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.51 \u2192 2.67 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 45m",
"pick_team": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.51"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.67"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.51,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.6",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.51"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Club Guaran\u00ed",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "club-guarani",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"away_team_id": 1174,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1174.webp",
"away_team_name": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"away_team_public_id": "0buPvmYGNZYZO5",
"away_team_slug": "club-guarani",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1632013,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"home_team_id": 1187,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1187.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"home_team_public_id": "4UJaG3DLD7Tgcw",
"home_team_slug": "sportivo-trinidense",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sportivo-trinidense",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
"league_id": 252,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/252.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
"league_public_id": "0YxCMpiFeGF6D6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 19:00:00",
"public_id": "42EhC1LJEDeT6s",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Asuncion",
"venue_name": "Estadio Martin Torres"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2974,
"best_odd": 3.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.2714,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2714,
"draw": 0.2995,
"home": 0.4291
},
"model_prob": 0.2772,
"p_final": 0.2731
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2847,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0167,
"implied_prob": 0.2995,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2714,
"draw": 0.2995,
"home": 0.4291
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3092
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4232,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2714,
"draw": 0.2995,
"home": 0.4291
},
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"p_final": 0.4123
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": -0.0272,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.2772
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": 0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0611,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3893
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3131,
"alpha_yes": 0.3131,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0713,
"edge_yes": -0.0713,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0868,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.042,
"ev_yes": -0.194,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1228,
"implied_no": 0.4977,
"implied_yes": 0.5023,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.569,
"p_final": 0.5207
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.431,
"p_final": 0.4793
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5207,
"p_final_yes": 0.4793,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2992,
"alpha_under": 0.3291,
"best_over_odd": 2.17,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": -0.0966,
"edge_under": 0.0966,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2514,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1289,
"ev_under": 0.1135,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0146,
"implied_over": 0.4416,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4418,
"implied_under": 0.5584,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5582,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2992,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1289,
"implied_prob": 0.4418,
"model_prob": 0.345,
"p_final": 0.4128
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3291,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0319,
"ev": -0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.5582,
"model_prob": 0.655,
"p_final": 0.5901
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4128,
"p_final_under": 0.5901,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.08,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1135,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1135,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1135,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1135,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1135,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sportivo Trinidense at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sportivo Trinidense as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0848,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -14.8,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.431,
"draw_prob": 0.3335,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3893,
"over_prob": 0.345,
"total_xg": 2.08,
"under_prob": 0.655,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.022,
"market_prob": 0.4986,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.569,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.569,
"p_final": 0.5207
},
"p_final": 0.5207,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3131,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.022,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.431,
"p_final": 0.4793
}
},
"edge": 0.0713,
"ev": 0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.4977,
"model_prob": 0.569,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3291,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0319,
"market_prob": 0.5582,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.655,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2992,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1289,
"implied_prob": 0.4418,
"model_prob": 0.345,
"p_final": 0.4128
},
"p_final": 0.5901,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0146,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3291,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0319,
"ev": -0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.5582,
"model_prob": 0.655,
"p_final": 0.5901
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0966,
"ev": 0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"model_prob": 0.655,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1632013,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1135,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2772,
"draw": 0.3335,
"home": 0.3893
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Club Guaran\u00ed",
"home": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.074343,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.5584,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.655,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0848,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3893,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1358,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632013,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T18:59:53.956589+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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División Profesional - Clausura — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertad Asunción | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 2 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 11 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 | Libertad Asunción | 11 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 11 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteño | 11 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 11 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 |
