AI correctly predicted the Sportivo Trinidense win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Sportivo Trinidense Sportivo Trinidense ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Sportivo Trinidense win 3–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Sportivo Trinidense 1.38 — Sportivo Luqueño 1.07
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sportivo Trinidense win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sportivo Trinidense win · Sportivo Trinidense 3–2 Sportivo Luqueño
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "18b3476caaf4e81ef409ac2c4d95770e27359595a3c7f6efc39c2af94976314e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.07,
"away_win_prob": 0.2746,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.492,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3024,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.64,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.31,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.36,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"home_win_prob": 0.423,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.443,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.557
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Sportivo Trinidense or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"away_xg": 1.07,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0963,
"edge_gap": 0.1215,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5198,
"model_prob": 0.4235,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 27.5,
"draw": 30.2,
"home": 42.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.83
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"best_odds": 1.83,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sportivo Trinidense Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.92,
"market_odds": 1.83,
"model_odds": 2.36,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": -12.3,
"value_pct": -22.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 12,
"away_score_rate": 65.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 12,
"home_score_rate": 74.8,
"no_prob": 49.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 50.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 50.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.07,
"home_expected": 1.38,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense or Draw",
"prob": 72.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense or Sportivo Luque\u00f1o",
"prob": 69.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sportivo Luque\u00f1o",
"prob": 57.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Sportivo Trinidense or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.5,
"draw_pct": 30.2,
"home_pct": 42.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.45,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 44.3,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 55.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.45,
"under_prob": 55.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.7,
"implied_prob": 22.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Sportivo Luque\u00f1o Win",
"model_prob": 27.5,
"odds": 4.39
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sportivo Luque\u00f1o",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.67,
"draw": 26.35,
"home": 51.98
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 19:59:17",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-05 19:29:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.98,
"gap_pp": -9.63,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 42.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.35,
"gap_pp": 3.84,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 30.19
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.67,
"gap_pp": 5.79,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 27.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.92,
"gap_pp": -3.62,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 44.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.08,
"gap_pp": 3.62,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 55.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.98,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.61,
"early": 3.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.39,
"early": 4.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.84,
"early": 1.84,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.08,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.6,
"ev": -0.111,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.127,
"model_prob_pct": 12.7,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3652,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0125,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.5228,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.557,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.332,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.4772,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"p_final": 0.4659
},
"p_final": 0.5353,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0085,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0472,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3652,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.5228,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"p_final": 0.5353
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.114,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.4,
"text": "-11.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0416,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.2,
"text": "+4.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0416,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 44.3,
"sort_key": 10037.44,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 55.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1392,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.9,
"text": "-13.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5198,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0023,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4235,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.225,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"sort_key": 2199.816,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3483,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0011,
"edge_pp": -0.1,
"market_prob": 0.4953,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.492,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3483,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0785,
"implied_prob": 0.4953,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.4941
},
"p_final": 0.4941,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0824,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0785,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3483,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.5047,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5059
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.016,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.6,
"text": "-1.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0704,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.0,
"text": "-7.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.016,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 49.2,
"sort_key": 1796.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 50.8
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"alert_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.68,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob_pct": 52.0,
"market_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"model_prob_pct": 42.3,
"model_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2054,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sportivo Trinidense at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sportivo Trinidense as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sportivo Trinidense \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632025 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1392,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5198,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4235,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.225,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 75,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.68,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.07,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.07 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"steam_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2054,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sportivo Trinidense at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sportivo Trinidense as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sportivo Trinidense \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632025 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1392,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5198,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4235,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.225,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Trinidense 1.38 xG vs Sportivo Luque\u00f1o 1.07 \u2192 Sportivo Trinidense 42.3%",
"Market: Sportivo Trinidense ~52.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Sportivo Trinidense \u2193 -2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sportivo Trinidense with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.68,
"fair_prob": 42.3,
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob": 51.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.89,
"fair_prob": 30.24,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.79,
"fair_prob": 27.46,
"label": "Sportivo Luque\u00f1o",
"market_prob": 21.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.65,
"fair_prob": 44.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.95,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.65,
"fair_prob": 55.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.05,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.07,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.07,
"fair_prob": 49.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.3,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob_pct": 51.98,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sportivo Trinidense\u0027s win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.3%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.7,
"model_prob_pct": 42.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 75,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Sportivo Trinidense \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sportivo Trinidense 1.38 xG vs Sportivo Luque\u00f1o 1.07 \u2192 Sportivo Trinidense 42.3%",
"Market: Sportivo Trinidense ~52.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Sportivo Trinidense \u2193 -2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sportivo Trinidense with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.68,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sportivo Trinidense odds shortened \u2193 -2.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sportivo Trinidense. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sportivo Trinidense. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sportivo Trinidense above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Sportivo Trinidense (\u2193 -2.8%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.1 pp (at 42.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sportivo Trinidense higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.68,
"edge_pp": -9.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.3,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"market_prob_pct": 51.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.89,
"edge_pp": 3.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.79,
"edge_pp": 5.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sportivo Luque\u00f1o",
"market_prob_pct": 21.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sportivo Trinidense (52.0%).",
"Sportivo Trinidense has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.8%, 1/8).",
"Sportivo Trinidense \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Sportivo Trinidense (swing 1.87 \u2192 1.75 \u2192 1.75) \u2014 net 2.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.83",
"1.79",
"1.75"
],
"display": "1.87 \u2192 1.75 \u2192 1.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 29m",
"pick_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.87"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
1.83,
1.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,6.8 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 1.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sportivo-luqueno",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sportivo Luque\u00f1o",
"away_team_id": 1183,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1183.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sportivo Luque\u00f1o",
"away_team_public_id": "1OH89O2GjvtwKR",
"away_team_slug": "sportivo-luqueno",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1632025,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"home_team_id": 1187,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1187.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"home_team_public_id": "4UJaG3DLD7Tgcw",
"home_team_slug": "sportivo-trinidense",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sportivo-trinidense",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
"league_id": 252,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/252.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
"league_public_id": "0YxCMpiFeGF6D6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 20:00:00",
"public_id": "1duh4GzAp5JkVg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Asuncion",
"venue_name": "Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1826,
"best_odd": 4.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0023,
"implied_prob": 0.2167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.2635,
"home": 0.5198
},
"model_prob": 0.2746,
"p_final": 0.2273
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2827,
"best_odd": 3.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0095,
"implied_prob": 0.2635,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.2635,
"home": 0.5198
},
"model_prob": 0.3019,
"p_final": 0.2744
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5133,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0494,
"ev": -0.1392,
"implied_prob": 0.5198,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.2635,
"home": 0.5198
},
"model_prob": 0.4235,
"p_final": 0.4704
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.39,
"edge": 0.0468,
"ev": 0.2054,
"implied_prob": 0.2278,
"model_prob": 0.2746
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.61,
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.277,
"model_prob": 0.3019
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.123,
"ev": -0.225,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.4235
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3483,
"alpha_yes": 0.3483,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0007,
"edge_yes": -0.0007,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.016,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0785,
"ev_yes": -0.0704,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0743,
"implied_no": 0.4913,
"implied_yes": 0.5087,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3483,
"best_odd": 1.865,
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0785,
"implied_prob": 0.4953,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.4941
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3483,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0743,
"implied_prob": 0.5047,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5059
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4941,
"p_final_yes": 0.5059,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.332,
"alpha_under": 0.3652,
"best_over_odd": 2.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.87,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.95,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.78,
"edge_over": -0.0365,
"edge_under": 0.0365,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.114,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0916,
"ev_under": 0.0416,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0472,
"implied_over": 0.4795,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4772,
"implied_under": 0.5205,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5228,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.332,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.4772,
"model_prob": 0.443,
"p_final": 0.4659
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3652,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.5228,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"p_final": 0.5353
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4659,
"p_final_under": 0.5353,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.45,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2054,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0416,
"confidence": 3.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2054,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 78,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sportivo Trinidense at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sportivo Trinidense as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sportivo Trinidense",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Sportivo Trinidense \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632025 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "75 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sportivo Trinidense).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 75,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1392,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5198,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4235,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.225,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.3019,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4235,
"over_prob": 0.443,
"total_xg": 2.45,
"under_prob": 0.557,
"xg_diff": 0.31
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0416,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"max_ev_side": "away",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": -0.0011,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"ev": -0.0785,
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"p_final": 0.4941
},
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"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0785,
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"yes": {
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}
},
"edge": 0.0007,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0125,
"market_prob": 0.5228,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.5353,
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"under": {
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},
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},
"edge": 0.0365,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1632025,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0416,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.3019,
"home": 0.4235
},
"reason_codes": [
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"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sportivo Luque\u00f1o",
"home": "Sportivo Trinidense"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1392,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5198,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4235,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.225,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632025,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T19:59:19.656967+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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División Profesional - Clausura — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 | Libertad Asunción | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Trinidense | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteño | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 12 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 12 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 3 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 4 | Libertad Asunción | 12 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteño | 12 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 12 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 12 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 2 |
