The model missed the final outcome (2 de Mayo win 0–2).
The model had projected Cerro Porteño at 51.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Cerro Porteño 2 de Mayo ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Cerro Porteño; match finished 2 de Mayo
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was 2 de Mayo win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 22:14 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Cerro Porteño 1.44 — 2 de Mayo 0.76
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 22:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 2 de Mayo win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
2 de Mayo win · Cerro Porteño 0–2 2 de Mayo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
"label": "2-0",
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{
"label": "0-0",
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{
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1262,
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},
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},
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"side_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
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},
{
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"edge": 0.0078,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
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"model_prob": 0.578,
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"no": {
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"edge": 0.0078,
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 2.1,
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.339,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
"model_prob": 0.422,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0001,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.0,
"text": "-0.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0716,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 57.8,
"sort_key": 4049.986,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 42.2
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 828.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 16.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.93,
"hero_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"market_prob_pct": 60.6,
"market_team": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"model_prob_pct": 51.7,
"model_team": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2004,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cerro Porte\u00f1o at 51.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cerro Porte\u00f1o as the value side (51.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cerro Porte\u00f1o \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632021 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1262,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6063,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.641025641025641,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1927,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.68"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.68
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.93,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.76,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.44,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.44,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.44 \u00b7 Away xG 0.76 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 1.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +1.4%",
"steam_team": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2004,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cerro Porte\u00f1o at 51.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cerro Porte\u00f1o as the value side (51.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cerro Porte\u00f1o \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632021 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1262,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6063,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.641025641025641,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1927,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.68"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.68
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cerro Porte\u00f1o 1.44 xG vs 2 de Mayo 0.76 \u2192 Cerro Porte\u00f1o 51.7%",
"Market: Cerro Porte\u00f1o ~60.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Cerro Porte\u00f1o odds \u2191 +1.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.93,
"fair_prob": 51.7,
"label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"market_prob": 60.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.4,
"fair_prob": 30.11,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.53,
"fair_prob": 18.19,
"label": "2 de Mayo",
"market_prob": 15.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.17,
"fair_prob": 37.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.17,
"fair_prob": 62.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.29,
"fair_prob": 42.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.29,
"fair_prob": 57.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.7,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"market_prob_pct": 60.63,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Cerro Porte\u00f1o\u0027s win probability at 60.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 51.7%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 60.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.9,
"model_prob_pct": 51.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cerro Porte\u00f1o 1.44 xG vs 2 de Mayo 0.76 \u2192 Cerro Porte\u00f1o 51.7%",
"Market: Cerro Porte\u00f1o ~60.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Cerro Porte\u00f1o odds \u2191 +1.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.93,
"hero_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o odds lengthened \u2191 +1.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Cerro Porte\u00f1o. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Cerro Porte\u00f1o. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Cerro Porte\u00f1o above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Cerro Porte\u00f1o (\u2191 +1.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 21.6 pp (at 51.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 21.6,
"max_prob_pct": 51.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Cerro Porte\u00f1o higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.93,
"edge_pp": -8.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.7,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"market_prob_pct": 60.63,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.4,
"edge_pp": 6.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.53,
"edge_pp": 2.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.19,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "2 de Mayo",
"market_prob_pct": 15.66,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cerro Porte\u00f1o (60.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cerro Porte\u00f1o, Market \u2192 Cerro Porte\u00f1o, while recent line movement odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.1,
"closing_odds": 1.56,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.1,
"entry_odds": 1.56,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 1.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.4%",
"open_odds": 1.48,
"pick_team": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"steam_score": 0,
"steam_team_name": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "2-de-mayo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "2 de Mayo",
"away_team_id": 2140,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2140.webp",
"away_team_name": "2 de Mayo",
"away_team_public_id": "1KVySfJiD602ZK",
"away_team_slug": "2-de-mayo",
"country_code": "PY",
"country_display_name": "Paraguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/py.svg",
"country_id": 125,
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"fixture_id": 1632021,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Paraguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"home_team_id": 1176,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1176.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"home_team_public_id": "5JPLbXunEqU2vm",
"home_team_slug": "cerro-porteno",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cerro-porteno",
"league_country": "Paraguay",
"league_country_display": "Paraguay",
"league_display_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
"league_id": 252,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/252.webp",
"league_name": "Divisi\u00f3n Profesional - Clausura",
"league_public_id": "0YxCMpiFeGF6D6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 22:15:00",
"public_id": "4MlVZsApAEwgj7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Asunci\u00f3n",
"venue_name": "Estadio General Pablo Rojas"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 7.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1925,
"best_odd": 6.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.025,
"implied_prob": 0.1566,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1566,
"draw": 0.2371,
"home": 0.6063
},
"model_prob": 0.1816,
"p_final": 0.1614
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2713,
"best_odd": 3.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": 0.0149,
"implied_prob": 0.2371,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1566,
"draw": 0.2371,
"home": 0.6063
},
"model_prob": 0.3009,
"p_final": 0.2544
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5201,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0462,
"ev": -0.1262,
"implied_prob": 0.6063,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1566,
"draw": 0.2371,
"home": 0.6063
},
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"p_final": 0.5602
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.04,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": 0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.1656,
"model_prob": 0.1816
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.99,
"edge": 0.0502,
"ev": 0.2004,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"model_prob": 0.3009
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.1235,
"ev": -0.1926,
"implied_prob": 0.641,
"model_prob": 0.5175
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3729,
"alpha_yes": 0.339,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0229,
"edge_yes": -0.0229,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0001,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.068,
"ev_yes": -0.0716,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0956,
"implied_no": 0.5551,
"implied_yes": 0.4449,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3729,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.557,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5649
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.339,
"best_odd": 2.075,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4358
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5649,
"p_final_yes": 0.4358,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.323,
"alpha_under": 0.3553,
"best_over_odd": 2.08,
"best_under_odd": 1.77,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.73,
"edge_over": -0.0817,
"edge_under": 0.0817,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2158,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1152,
"ev_under": 0.1027,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0122,
"implied_over": 0.4587,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4577,
"implied_under": 0.5413,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5423,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.323,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.0261,
"ev": -0.1152,
"implied_prob": 0.4577,
"model_prob": 0.377,
"p_final": 0.4316
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3553,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.5423,
"model_prob": 0.623,
"p_final": 0.571
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4316,
"p_final_under": 0.571,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2004,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1027,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1027,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2004,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cerro Porte\u00f1o at 51.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 60.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cerro Porte\u00f1o as the value side (51.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cerro Porte\u00f1o \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1632021 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +10.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +10.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cerro Porte\u00f1o, but the model still strongly favours Cerro Porte\u00f1o.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1262,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6063,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.641025641025641,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1927,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.7,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.68"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.68
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.422,
"draw_prob": 0.3009,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5175,
"over_prob": 0.377,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"under_prob": 0.623,
"xg_diff": 0.68
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0462,
"ev": -0.1262,
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"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0078,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0078,
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},
"p_final": 0.5649,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.068,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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},
"edge": 0.0229,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0287,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.571,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0122,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0122,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0817,
"ev": 0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.5413,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1632021,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1027,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1816,
"draw": 0.3009,
"home": 0.5175
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "2 de Mayo",
"home": "Cerro Porte\u00f1o"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.063982,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.5413,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.623,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1262,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6063,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5175,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.641025641025641,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1927,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1632021,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T22:14:07.661854+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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División Profesional - Clausura — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 | Libertad Asunción | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Sportivo Trinidense | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteño | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 12 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 12 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 3 | Nacional Asunción | 12 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 4 | Libertad Asunción | 12 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteño | 12 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 | Club Guaraní | 12 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rubio Ñu | 12 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Deportivo Recoleta | 12 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Sportivo Luqueño | 12 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Sportivo San Lorenzo | 12 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 2 |
