Tenga cuidado
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
La estimación justa difiere sustancialmente de los precios actuales del mercado. Pueden ocurrir grandes divergencias cuando los datos de calificación son incompletos, las estimaciones de la fuerza del equipo son inciertas o el mercado incorpora información que no está presente en el modelo. Interprete con precaución.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Potosí | 39.0% | 67.93% | -28.9 pp |
| Empate | 19.88% | 18.48% | +1.4 pp |
| Real Oruro | 41.12% | 13.59% | +27.5 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
El modelo y el mercado difieren materialmente (28.9 puntos porcentuales). Se recomienda una validación adicional antes de interpretar esta comparación.
Nacional Potosí market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Nacional Potosí
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
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"over_prob": 0.861,
"total_xg": 4.84,
"under_prob": 0.139,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": 0.1437,
"implied_prob": 0.1359,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4111,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Real Oruro"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2305,
"ev": 0.3125,
"implied_prob": 0.6055,
"model_prob": 0.836,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1666,
"ev": 0.171,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"model_prob": 0.861,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1538394,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3125,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4111,
"draw": 0.1986,
"home": 0.3903
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.171,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.861,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.171,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.861,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1437,
"implied_prob": 0.1359,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4111,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Real Oruro",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Oruro",
"home": "Nacional Potos\u00ed"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.300437,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3125,
"implied_prob": 0.6055,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.836,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1538394,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T12:57:16.964886+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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