San Antonio Bulo Bulo · Probabilidad del modelo 76.5%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 58.8%
EV línea de consenso: +3.9%
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- San Antonio Bulo Bulo Fuerte favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 76.6%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 58.8%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
El modelo y el mercado se inclinan del mismo lado hacia San Antonio Bulo Bulo, pero las diferencias de precios justifican la precaución.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- San Antonio Bulo Bulo +17.8 pp
- Amplitud
- 10/10
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
La estimación estadística justa es materialmente más alta que el mercado en San Antonio Bulo Bulo.
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en San Antonio Bulo Bulo.
- El modelo puede ver un enfrentamiento más lento o más igualado que el mercado.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 76.59% | 58.8% | +17.8 pp |
| Empate | 14.36% | 21.26% | -6.9 pp |
| ABB | 9.04% | 19.94% | -10.9 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Valor posible en 1X2: San Antonio Bulo Bulo (+3.9% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+6.1% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+3.6% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Sí 63.0% · No 37.0%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.3% · EV No +3.6%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Más probable
3-1
Probabilidad 8.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +6.1% ·
EV inferior -29.6%
(8 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.3% · EV No +3.6%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -9.3% · EV No +3.6%
San Antonio Bulo Bulo market context before kickoff
— Seguimiento on San Antonio Bulo Bulo
- Odds move
- 1.57 → 1.57 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 10/10
- Steam score
- 40 (B)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.56
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"status_long": "Match Postponed",
"status_short": "PST",
"venue_city": "Entre Rios",
"venue_name": "Estadio Dr. Carlos Villegas"
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"match_decision": {
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"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.1664,
"implied_prob": 0.1994,
"model_prob": 0.0906,
"p_final": 0.1812
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1794,
"best_odd": 4.315,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.2126,
"model_prob": 0.144,
"p_final": 0.2003
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4404,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0781,
"ev": 0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.588,
"model_prob": 0.7653,
"p_final": 0.6661
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"edge_no": 0.025,
"edge_yes": -0.025,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.036,
"ev_yes": -0.0928,
"implied_no": 0.345,
"implied_yes": 0.655,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.2,
"edge_over": 0.0868,
"edge_under": -0.0868,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0608,
"ev_under": -0.296,
"implied_over": 0.6932,
"implied_under": 0.3068,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.13,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0608,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.63,
"draw_prob": 0.144,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.7653,
"over_prob": 0.78,
"total_xg": 4.13,
"under_prob": 0.22,
"xg_diff": 2.01
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0781,
"ev": 0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.588,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.7653,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Antonio Bulo Bulo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.345,
"model_prob": 0.37,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0868,
"ev": 0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.6932,
"model_prob": 0.78,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1538389,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0608,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.0906,
"draw": 0.144,
"home": 0.7653
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "ABB",
"home": "San Antonio Bulo Bulo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.047424,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0608,
"implied_prob": 0.6932,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.78,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1538389,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:09:28.949420+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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