Gualberto Villarroel SJ · Probabilidad del modelo 64.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 21.7%
EV línea de consenso: +9.8%
Evaluación de pronóstico
Riesgo de avería del modelo
- Favorito
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 64.6%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 21.7%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Muy débil
- Validación
- Fallar
Resumen:
No interprete la comparación entre modelo y mercado hasta que pase la validación.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Muy débil
- Validación
- Fallar
- Mayor brecha
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ +42.9 pp
- Amplitud
- 9/9
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
El modelo y el mercado difieren en 42.9 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 64.59% | 21.7% | +42.9 pp |
| Empate | 19.77% | 23.07% | -3.3 pp |
| The Strongest | 15.64% | 55.23% | -39.6 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Riesgo de avería del modelo
El modelo y el mercado difieren en 42.9 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
- Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
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1X2
✔ Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Valor)
Más de 2.5 71.0% · Menos de 2.5 29.0%
EV terminado +5.1% · EV inferior -21.7%
Lectura de valor:
Más de 2.5
Sí 64.7% · No 35.3%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -2.9% · EV No -7.2%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Más probable
2-1
Probabilidad 9.3%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +5.1% ·
EV inferior -21.7%
(7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -2.9% · EV No -7.2%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -2.9% · EV No -7.2%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Gualberto Villarroel SJ
- Odds move
- 4.33 → 4.33 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 9/9
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: La validación del modelo falló
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 4.22
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"outcome": "home"
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"fair_prob_pct": 64.59,
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"hero_team_name": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ",
"market_prob_pct": 21.7,
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"divergence_level_label": "Model breakdown risk",
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"divergence_tier": "breakdown",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
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"favourite_label": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ",
"headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_prob_pct": 21.7,
"model_prob_pct": 64.6,
"paragraphs": [
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],
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"reliability_icon": "\u2717",
"reliability_tier": "breakdown",
"summary": "Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.",
"tier": "breakdown",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Fail"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 42.89,
"hero_label": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "very_weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 42.89,
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"status": "fail"
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"outcome_separation": {
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 44.8,
"max_prob_pct": 64.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
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"rows": [
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"market_prob_pct": 21.7,
"side": "home"
},
{
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"fair_prob_pct": 19.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.07,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -39.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "The Strongest",
"market_prob_pct": 55.23,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"status_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
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"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gualberto Villarroel SJ, Market \u2192 The Strongest, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_failed",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Model validation failed",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.67,
"entry_odds": 4.22,
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"model_validation_status": "fail",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "lost"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 42.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
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"unlock_label": "Unlock"
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"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3711,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3711.webp",
"away_team_name": "The Strongest",
"country_code": "BO",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bo.svg",
"country_name": "Bolivia",
"fixture_id": 1538390,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Bolivia",
"home_team_id": 22266,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22266.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ",
"league_country": "Bolivia",
"league_id": 344,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/344.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 22:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Match Postponed",
"status_short": "PST",
"venue_city": "Oruro",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.1187,
"ev": -0.2802,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.1566,
"p_final": 0.4336
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2852,
"best_odd": 3.975,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.2307,
"model_prob": 0.1978,
"p_final": 0.2213
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1,
"best_odd": 4.225,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0429,
"ev": 0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.217,
"model_prob": 0.6456,
"p_final": 0.2599
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"edge_no": -0.0204,
"edge_yes": 0.0204,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0716,
"ev_yes": -0.0295,
"implied_no": 0.3734,
"implied_yes": 0.6266,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.48,
"best_under_odd": 2.7,
"edge_over": 0.0699,
"edge_under": -0.0699,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0508,
"ev_under": -0.217,
"implied_over": 0.6401,
"implied_under": 0.3599,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.67,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.098,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.647,
"draw_prob": 0.1978,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6456,
"over_prob": 0.71,
"total_xg": 3.67,
"under_prob": 0.29,
"xg_diff": 1.29
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0429,
"ev": 0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.217,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6456,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0295,
"implied_prob": 0.6266,
"model_prob": 0.647,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0699,
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.6401,
"model_prob": 0.71,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1538390,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.098,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1566,
"draw": 0.1978,
"home": 0.6456
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.6401,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.71,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.6401,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.71,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "The Strongest",
"home": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.075923,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.098,
"implied_prob": 0.217,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6456,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gualberto Villarroel SJ",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1538390,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:59:33.303694+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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