BFA · Probabilidad del modelo 41.9%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 11.2%
EV línea de consenso: +15.1%
Evaluación de pronóstico
Riesgo de avería del modelo
- Favorito
- BFA Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 41.9%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 11.2%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Muy débil
- Validación
- Fallar
Resumen:
No interprete la comparación entre modelo y mercado hasta que pase la validación.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Muy débil
- Validación
- Fallar
- Mayor brecha
- Minija -40.9 pp
- Amplitud
- 7/7
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
El modelo y el mercado difieren en 40.9 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minija | 28.81% | 69.73% | -40.9 pp |
| Empate | 29.31% | 19.02% | +10.3 pp |
| BFA | 41.88% | 11.25% | +30.6 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Riesgo de avería del modelo
El modelo y el mercado difieren en 40.9 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
- Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Sí 54.0% · No 46.0%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +13.4% · EV No -18.6%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.4%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -24.3% ·
EV inferior +23.3%
(5 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +13.4% · EV No -18.6%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +13.4% · EV No -18.6%
Minija market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Minija
- Odds move
- 1.27 → 1.27 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 7/7
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: La validación del modelo falló
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.27
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"home_win_prob": 0.2881,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
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"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Minija"
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"away_xg": 1.44,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": "low",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
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"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 10.5
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{
"affi_link": null,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"odd": 8.5
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 8.0
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{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
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{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
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"pick": "Yes",
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{
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"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.7
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.6
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
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{
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"label": "Minija or BFA",
"prob": 70.7
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{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or BFA",
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],
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"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 28.8,
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"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"homepage_pick": null,
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"text": "-24.3%"
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"tier": "best",
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{
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"raw_pct": 15.1,
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"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side_label": "BFA",
"sort_key": 10135.54,
"tier": "best"
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{
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1858,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -18.6,
"text": "-18.6%"
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
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{
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"has_alert": false,
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"market_prob_pct": 11.2,
"market_team": "Minija",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "BFA",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2717",
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"status_label": "Model breakdown risk",
"status_line": "Market disagrees with model",
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"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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"label": "Minija",
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"outcome": "home"
},
{
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"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
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"outcome": "draw"
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{
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"fair_prob": 41.88,
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"market_prob": 11.25,
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"outcome": "away"
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{
"edge_pp": -11.13,
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"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
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"fair_prob": 51.8,
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"market_prob": 40.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
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{
"edge_pp": 7.43,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.57,
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"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.43,
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"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -40.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Minija",
"market_prob_pct": 69.73,
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"steam_team_name": "Minija"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "breakdown",
"edge_status": "model_breakdown_risk",
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"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"divergence_level": "breakdown",
"divergence_level_label": "Model breakdown risk",
"divergence_note": "The model and market differ by 40.9 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup \u2014 validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.",
"divergence_tier": "breakdown",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "BFA",
"headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_prob_pct": 11.2,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"paragraphs": [
"Model and market diverge materially. Treat model probabilities as unreliable until inputs are validated."
],
"reliability_headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"reliability_icon": "\u2717",
"reliability_tier": "breakdown",
"summary": "Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.",
"tier": "breakdown",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Fail"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -40.92,
"hero_label": "Minija",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "very_weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 40.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_fail",
"status": "fail"
},
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
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"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -40.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Minija",
"market_prob_pct": 69.73,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.02,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "BFA",
"market_prob_pct": 11.25,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"status_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Minija (11.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 BFA, Market \u2192 Minija, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_failed",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Model validation failed",
"entry_implied_pct": 78.43,
"entry_odds": 1.27,
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"model_validation_status": "fail",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "lost"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 1.27,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.27,
"pick_team": "Minija",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Minija",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 40.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3857,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3857.webp",
"away_team_name": "BFA",
"country_code": "LT",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lt.svg",
"country_name": "Lithuania",
"fixture_id": 1529742,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Lithuania",
"home_team_id": 3864,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3864.webp",
"home_team_name": "Minija",
"league_country": "Lithuania",
"league_id": 361,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/361.webp",
"league_name": "1 Lyga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 14:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kretinga",
"venue_name": "Kretinga Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1082,
"best_odd": 7.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0331,
"ev": 0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.1125,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.1456
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1691,
"best_odd": 4.675,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0294,
"implied_prob": 0.1902,
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.2076
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3,
"best_odd": 1.275,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.1227,
"ev": -0.2674,
"implied_prob": 0.6973,
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.5746
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.77,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"edge_no": -0.0743,
"edge_yes": 0.0743,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1858,
"ev_yes": 0.134,
"implied_no": 0.5343,
"implied_yes": 0.4657,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.1113,
"edge_under": 0.1113,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"implied_over": 0.5933,
"implied_under": 0.4067,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0331,
"ev": 0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.1125,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "BFA"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0743,
"ev": 0.134,
"implied_prob": 0.4657,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1113,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1529742,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4185,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.2882
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.1125,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "BFA",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.1125,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "BFA",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.134,
"implied_prob": 0.4657,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "BFA",
"home": "Minija"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1529742,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T04:47:01.320705+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Lithuania. 1 Lyga Predicciones
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