Sí 56.2% · No 43.8%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -4.5% · EV No +0.7%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Atmosfera Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 39.7%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 42.1%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Atmosfera -2.4 pp
- Amplitud
- 8/8
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, Jonava ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Jonava.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonava | 31.42% | 31.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Empate | 28.87% | 26.63% | +2.2 pp |
| Atmosfera | 39.71% | 42.08% | -2.4 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+3.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Borde delgado: BTTS No (+0.7% - debajo de la barra de tamaño predeterminada)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Baja convicción (4/10): prefiera apuestas más pequeñas o saltee.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Mejor +EV (mercados seguidos)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Atmosfera · Probabilidad del modelo 39.7%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 42.1%
EV línea de consenso: -13.0%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -8.6% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Ejecución: sin Primaria / alternativa a tamaño estándar — otros mercados pueden mostrar +EV en las tarjetas de abajo.
Mercado: puede haber una pequeña ineficiencia modelo–precio en líneas marginales o de alta varianza — no es apuesta por defecto; reduzca la apuesta si prueba.
(Técnico: al menos una línea seguida supera el umbral +EV a ≥2.0% en las mejores cuotas — no implica apuesta por defecto.)
Fuerza de la decisión: 4.0 / 10
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -6.4% ·
EV inferior +3.7%
(7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -4.5% · EV No +0.7%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -4.5% · EV No +0.7%
Jonava market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Jonava
- Odds move
- 2.80 → 2.80 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 8/8
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.12
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"tier": "low",
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],
"follow_up": "However, Jonava has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
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"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Jonava.",
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"lead_gap_pp": 8.3,
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"paragraphs": [
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],
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"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
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"premium_teaser": {
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"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 3856,
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"country_code": "LT",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lt.svg",
"country_name": "Lithuania",
"fixture_id": 1529740,
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"goals_home": null,
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"home_team_id": 3862,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3862.webp",
"home_team_name": "Jonava",
"league_country": "Lithuania",
"league_id": 361,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/361.webp",
"league_name": "1 Lyga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Jonava",
"venue_name": "Jonavos centrinis stadionas"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4338,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"model_prob": 0.3967,
"p_final": 0.4103
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2898,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.2663,
"model_prob": 0.2889,
"p_final": 0.2728
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4491,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0006,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.313,
"model_prob": 0.3144,
"p_final": 0.3136
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"edge_no": 0.0116,
"edge_yes": -0.0116,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0074,
"ev_yes": -0.0446,
"implied_no": 0.4264,
"implied_yes": 0.5736,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0307,
"edge_under": 0.0307,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0639,
"ev_under": 0.0374,
"implied_over": 0.5367,
"implied_under": 0.4633,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0374,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"draw_prob": 0.2889,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3967,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0374,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4633,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3967,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atmosfera"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": 0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"model_prob": 0.438,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0307,
"ev": 0.0374,
"implied_prob": 0.4633,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1529740,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0374,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3967,
"draw": 0.2889,
"home": 0.3144
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atmosfera",
"home": "Jonava"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1529740,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:47:57.150788+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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