Sí 54.2% · No 45.8%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -32.8% · EV No +25%+
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de predicción
Predicción confiable
- Favorito
- Ulverstone Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 40.4%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 39.8%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Launceston United -9.7 pp
- Amplitud
- 3/3
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en Launceston United.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launceston United | 30.14% | 39.82% | -9.7 pp |
| Empate | 29.44% | 20.35% | +9.1 pp |
| Ulverstone | 40.42% | 39.82% | +0.6 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Ulverstone · Probabilidad del modelo 40.5%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 39.8%
EV línea de consenso: -7.7%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -1.4% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -39.8% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(2 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -32.8% · EV No +25%+
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -32.8% · EV No +25%+
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Predicción generada
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.3
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"status_long": "Not Started",
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"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.2035,
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2192
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3845,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0373,
"ev": -0.1699,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.68,
"best_yes_odd": 1.24,
"edge_no": 0.206,
"edge_yes": -0.206,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.6854,
"ev_yes": -0.3279,
"implied_no": 0.252,
"implied_yes": 0.748,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.25,
"best_under_odd": 3.8,
"edge_over": -0.2722,
"edge_under": 0.2722,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3975,
"ev_under": 0.9684,
"implied_over": 0.7542,
"implied_under": 0.2458,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.9684,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0029,
"ev": -0.0774,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ulverstone"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.206,
"ev": 0.6854,
"implied_prob": 0.252,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2722,
"ev": 0.9684,
"implied_prob": 0.2458,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1529257,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.9684,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6854,
"implied_prob": 0.252,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6854,
"implied_prob": 0.252,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ulverstone",
"home": "Launceston United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.309005,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9684,
"implied_prob": 0.2458,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1529257,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T06:48:30.613497+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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