Sí 53.2% · No 46.8%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -28.7% · EV No +25%+
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de predicción
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Launceston City Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 45.8%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 56.1%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
El modelo y el mercado se inclinan del mismo lado hacia Launceston City, pero las diferencias de precios justifican la precaución.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Launceston City -10.3 pp
- Amplitud
- 2/2
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Launceston City que la estimación justa actual.
Sin embargo, Riverside ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Riverside.
- Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
- El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riverside | 25.37% | 24.06% | +1.3 pp |
| Empate | 28.81% | 19.82% | +9.0 pp |
| Launceston City | 45.82% | 56.12% | -10.3 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Launceston City · Probabilidad del modelo 45.8%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 56.1%
EV línea de consenso: -17.3%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -1.7% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -37.3% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(2 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -28.7% · EV No +25%+
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -28.7% · EV No +25%+
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Predicción generada
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.62
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"status_long": "Not Started",
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},
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"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0167,
"implied_prob": 0.1982,
"model_prob": 0.288,
"p_final": 0.2138
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2941,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.2406,
"model_prob": 0.2536,
"p_final": 0.2444
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.04,
"best_yes_odd": 1.34,
"edge_no": 0.1621,
"edge_yes": -0.1621,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4227,
"ev_yes": -0.2871,
"implied_no": 0.3059,
"implied_yes": 0.6941,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.3,
"best_under_odd": 3.4,
"edge_over": -0.2408,
"edge_under": 0.2408,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3734,
"ev_under": 0.7612,
"implied_over": 0.7228,
"implied_under": 0.2772,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7612,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.532,
"draw_prob": 0.288,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0522,
"ev": -0.1729,
"implied_prob": 0.5612,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Launceston City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1621,
"ev": 0.4227,
"implied_prob": 0.3059,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2408,
"ev": 0.7612,
"implied_prob": 0.2772,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1529255,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7612,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4584,
"draw": 0.288,
"home": 0.2536
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4227,
"implied_prob": 0.3059,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.468,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4227,
"implied_prob": 0.3059,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.468,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Launceston City",
"home": "Riverside"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.24289,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7612,
"implied_prob": 0.2772,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1529255,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T06:47:57.421265+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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