AI correctly predicted the Ucrania win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Ucrania Ucrania ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 0-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hungría | 35.9% | 38.9% | -3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 26.3% | 30.1% | -3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Ucrania | 37.8% | 31.0% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Ucrania's win probability at 37.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.0%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Ucrania win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ucrania.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ucrania more conservatively (31.1% vs model 37.8%, 6.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ucrania win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hungría 36.0% · Draw 26.3% · Ucrania 37.7%
- xG · Hungría 1.76 — Ucrania 2.03
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hungría 2.49 · Draw 3.22 · Ucrania 3.12
- Implied 1X2 · Hungría 38.9% · Draw 30.1% · Ucrania 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hungría 2.49 · Draw 3.22 · Ucrania 3.12
- Implied 1X2 · Hungría 38.9% · Draw 30.1% · Ucrania 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ucrania win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
70/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
31/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.12
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ucrania win · Hungría 0–1 Ucrania
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"alert_team": "Hungr\u00eda",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.8,
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"show": true,
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},
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"gap_pp": 6.7,
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ucrania at 37.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.0%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ucrania",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ucrania).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0247,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3104,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3205128205128205,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1772,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.71,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.71,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.03,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.76,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.03,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.76 \u00b7 Away xG 2.03 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +50%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"steam_team": "Hungr\u00eda",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ucrania).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ucrania)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ucrania)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6571,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6571,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ucrania at 37.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ucrania as the value side (37.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ucrania",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ucrania).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0247,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3104,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3205128205128205,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1772,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hungr\u00eda 1.76 xG vs Ucrania 2.03 \u2192 Ucrania 37.8%",
"Market: Hungr\u00eda ~31.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Hungr\u00eda odds \u2191 +11.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ucrania with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.96,
"fair_prob": 35.93,
"label": "Hungr\u00eda",
"market_prob": 38.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.75,
"fair_prob": 26.32,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.71,
"fair_prob": 37.75,
"label": "Ucrania",
"market_prob": 31.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 29.66,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -29.56,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.67,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.33,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.67,
"fair_prob": 27.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.67,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.75,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Ucrania",
"market_prob_pct": 31.04,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Hungr\u00eda"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Ucrania\u0027s win probability at 37.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 31.0%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.71,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ucrania",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Ucrania \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hungr\u00eda 1.76 xG vs Ucrania 2.03 \u2192 Ucrania 37.8%",
"Market: Hungr\u00eda ~31.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Hungr\u00eda odds \u2191 +11.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Ucrania with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.71,
"hero_label": "Ucrania",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Hungr\u00eda odds lengthened \u2191 +11.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Hungr\u00eda has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ucrania.",
"note": "Drift away from Hungr\u00eda \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ucrania.",
"However, Hungr\u00eda has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Hungr\u00eda \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Ucrania.",
"At the same time, Hungr\u00eda has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Hungr\u00eda."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.71,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Ucrania",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.7,
"lead": "The model rates Ucrania considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.96,
"edge_pp": -2.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hungr\u00eda",
"market_prob_pct": 38.89,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.75,
"edge_pp": -3.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.07,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.71,
"edge_pp": 6.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.75,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ucrania",
"market_prob_pct": 31.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Hungr\u00eda \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hungr\u00eda (31.0%).",
"Hungr\u00eda odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.6%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ucrania, Market \u2192 Hungr\u00eda, while Hungr\u00eda odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.05,
"closing_odds": 3.12,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.05,
"entry_odds": 3.12,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Hungr\u00eda (11.6%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.49",
"2.32",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.49 \u2192 2.08 \u2192 2.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 48m",
"pick_team": "Hungr\u00eda",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.49,
2.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Hungr\u00eda",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hungr\u00eda",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.4,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Hungr\u00eda",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.6%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Hungr\u00eda",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Hungr\u00eda",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ukraine",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Ucrania",
"away_team_id": 772,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/772.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ucrania",
"away_team_public_id": "2JsxhTIxz7ABUt",
"away_team_slug": "ukraine",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528884,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Hungr\u00eda",
"home_team_display_name": "Hungr\u00eda",
"home_team_id": 769,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/769.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hungr\u00eda",
"home_team_public_id": "5nqvo3ttKZCvyU",
"home_team_slug": "hungary",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hungary",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4Y0p6AQoeWZwWv",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Budapest",
"venue_name": "Pusk\u00e1s Ar\u00e9na"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2699,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": 0.0247,
"implied_prob": 0.3104,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3104,
"draw": 0.3007,
"home": 0.3889
},
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"p_final": 0.3284
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2831,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0659,
"implied_prob": 0.3007,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3104,
"draw": 0.3007,
"home": 0.3889
},
"model_prob": 0.2631,
"p_final": 0.2901
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4302,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.3889,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3104,
"draw": 0.3007,
"home": 0.3889
},
"model_prob": 0.3596,
"p_final": 0.3763
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": 0.0568,
"ev": 0.1771,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.3773
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.22,
"edge": -0.0475,
"ev": -0.1528,
"implied_prob": 0.3106,
"model_prob": 0.2631
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": -0.042,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.3596
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1478,
"alpha_yes": 0.1478,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2267,
"edge_yes": 0.2267,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4843,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1447,
"ev_yes": 0.3651,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0207,
"implied_no": 0.4967,
"implied_yes": 0.5033,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1478,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1447,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.4648
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1478,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": -0.0207,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.5352
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4648,
"p_final_yes": 0.5352,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1044,
"alpha_under": 0.1439,
"best_over_odd": 2.27,
"best_under_odd": 1.76,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.2966,
"edge_under": -0.2956,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6571,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0179,
"ev_under": -0.523,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1221,
"implied_over": 0.4334,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4315,
"implied_under": 0.5666,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5685,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1044,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0179,
"implied_prob": 0.4315,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4627
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1439,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0428,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.5685,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5257
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4627,
"p_final_under": 0.5257,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6571,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6571,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6571,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ucrania)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6571,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6571,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ucrania at 37.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ucrania as the value side (37.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ucrania",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Ucrania).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0247,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3104,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3205128205128205,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1772,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.73,
"draw_prob": 0.2631,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3773,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.27
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": 0.0247,
"implied_prob": 0.3104,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ucrania"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1478,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0338,
"market_prob": 0.5014,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1478,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1447,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.4648
},
"p_final": 0.5352,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0207,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1478,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": -0.0207,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.5352
}
},
"edge": 0.2267,
"ev": 0.3651,
"implied_prob": 0.5033,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1044,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0312,
"market_prob": 0.4315,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1044,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0179,
"implied_prob": 0.4315,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4627
},
"p_final": 0.4627,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0179,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1439,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0428,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.5685,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5257
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.2966,
"ev": 0.6571,
"implied_prob": 0.4334,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528884,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6571,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3773,
"draw": 0.2631,
"home": 0.3596
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3651,
"implied_prob": 0.5033,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3651,
"implied_prob": 0.5033,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ucrania",
"home": "Hungr\u00eda"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.599604,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6571,
"implied_prob": 0.4334,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0247,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.12,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3104,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3205128205128205,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1772,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528884,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T19:16:34.488822+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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