The model missed the final outcome (Irlanda del Norte win 0–3).
The model had projected Ucrania at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Ucrania Irlanda del Norte ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 0-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Ucrania; match finished Irlanda del Norte
Market lesson
The full-time result was Irlanda del Norte win 0–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Ucrania 1.78 — Irlanda del Norte 2.01
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Irlanda del Norte win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Irlanda del Norte win · Ucrania 0–3 Irlanda del Norte
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Irlanda del Norte and -2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Irlanda del Norte"
},
"away_xg": 2.01,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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{
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"risk_color": null,
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"label": "Home",
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"overround": 3.5,
"prob_edge": -9.2,
"value_pct": -18.5,
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 86.6,
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"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 83.1,
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 73.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.01,
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
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{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ucrania or Draw",
"prob": 67.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ucrania or Irlanda del Norte",
"prob": 73.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Irlanda del Norte",
"prob": 59.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ucrania or Irlanda del Norte",
"pick_prob": 73.1
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 27.0,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ucrania"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-2.5",
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 45.8,
"implied_prob": 22.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Irlanda del Norte Win",
"model_prob": 32.7,
"odds": 4.46
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 18:45:13",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 18:14:55",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ucrania",
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"prob": 8.1
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{
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"prob": 8.1
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{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
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{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.4
}
]
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"edge": 0.0353,
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"ev": 0.0408,
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"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 1.0367,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 103.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.5827,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -58.3,
"text": "-58.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.0367,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 11083.03,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0955,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0299,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.417,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1313,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.27,
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},
"p_final": 0.4469,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 31.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6279,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0035,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0955,
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"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.73,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5626,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -56.3,
"text": "-56.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.679,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 67.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.679,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 27.0,
"sort_key": 10611.1,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.0
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0941,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.4,
"text": "-9.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0485,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.9,
"text": "+4.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ucrania",
"sort_key": 5238.8,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"alert_team": "Ucrania",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.99,
"hero_label": "Irlanda del Norte",
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"market_team": "Ucrania",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Ucrania",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010367,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010367,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ucrania at 40.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ucrania as the value side (40.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ucrania",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0941,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.99,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.01,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 49.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.78,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.01,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.78 \u00b7 Away xG 2.01 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +49%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"steam_team": "Ucrania",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010367,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010367,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ucrania at 40.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ucrania as the value side (40.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ucrania",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0941,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ucrania 1.78 xG vs Irlanda del Norte 2.01 \u2192 Ucrania 40.4%",
"Market: Ucrania ~47.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Ucrania odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ucrania, but the market has moved away from Ucrania.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.46,
"fair_prob": 40.38,
"label": "Ucrania",
"market_prob": 47.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.53,
"fair_prob": 26.96,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.99,
"fair_prob": 32.66,
"label": "Irlanda del Norte",
"market_prob": 21.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 37.23,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -37.13,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 31.4,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -31.4,
"fair_prob": 27.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.66,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Irlanda del Norte",
"market_prob_pct": 21.67,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Ucrania"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Irlanda del Norte\u0027s win probability at 32.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.7%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ucrania",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ucrania 1.78 xG vs Irlanda del Norte 2.01 \u2192 Ucrania 40.4%",
"Market: Ucrania ~47.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Ucrania odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ucrania, but the market has moved away from Ucrania.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.99,
"hero_label": "Irlanda del Norte",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ucrania odds lengthened \u2191 +8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ucrania has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Irlanda del Norte.",
"note": "Drift away from Ucrania \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Irlanda del Norte.",
"However, Ucrania has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Ucrania \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Irlanda del Norte more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Ucrania has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Ucrania."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.7 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.7,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Irlanda del Norte",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.0,
"lead": "The model rates Irlanda del Norte considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.46,
"edge_pp": -7.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.38,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ucrania",
"market_prob_pct": 47.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.53,
"edge_pp": -3.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.49,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.99,
"edge_pp": 10.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.66,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Irlanda del Norte",
"market_prob_pct": 21.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Ucrania \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ucrania (47.8%).",
"Ucrania odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.3%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ucrania, Market \u2192 Ucrania, while Ucrania odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 22.42,
"closing_odds": 4.46,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 22.42,
"entry_odds": 4.46,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 72h 14m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Ucrania (8.3%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.02",
"1.91",
"1.80"
],
"display": "2.05 \u2192 1.78 \u2192 1.95",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 72h 14m",
"pick_team": "Ucrania",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.78"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
2.02,
1.95
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.02"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Ucrania",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Ucrania",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Ucrania while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Ucrania",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Ucrania",
"steam_score": 41,
"steam_team_name": "Ucrania",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "northern-ireland",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 2,
"away_team_display_name": "Irlanda del Norte",
"away_team_id": 771,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/771.webp",
"away_team_name": "Irlanda del Norte",
"away_team_public_id": "48ddgLsbGUUZul",
"away_team_slug": "northern-ireland",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528927,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ucrania",
"home_team_display_name": "Ucrania",
"home_team_id": 772,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/772.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ucrania",
"home_team_public_id": "2JsxhTIxz7ABUt",
"home_team_slug": "ukraine",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ukraine",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 18:45:00",
"public_id": "5FPgklrhnp6rv4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Trnava",
"venue_name": "\u0160tadi\u00f3n Antona Malatinsk\u00e9ho"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1669,
"best_odd": 4.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": 0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.2167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.3049,
"home": 0.4784
},
"model_prob": 0.3269,
"p_final": 0.2351
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2842,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.01,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.3049,
"home": 0.4784
},
"model_prob": 0.2697,
"p_final": 0.2949
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3994,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.3049,
"home": 0.4784
},
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"p_final": 0.4485
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.46,
"edge": 0.1027,
"ev": 0.4582,
"implied_prob": 0.2242,
"model_prob": 0.3269
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": -0.0458,
"ev": -0.1452,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.2697
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": -0.0916,
"ev": -0.1851,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.4034
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1313,
"alpha_yes": 0.0955,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.3,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.314,
"edge_yes": 0.314,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5626,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1357,
"ev_yes": 0.679,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0035,
"implied_no": 0.584,
"implied_yes": 0.416,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1313,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0955,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4469
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5419,
"p_final_yes": 0.4469,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.0945,
"alpha_under": 0.1299,
"best_over_odd": 2.79,
"best_under_odd": 1.54,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.66,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.47,
"edge_over": 0.3723,
"edge_under": -0.3713,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 1.0367,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0408,
"ev_under": -0.5827,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1245,
"implied_over": 0.3577,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3559,
"implied_under": 0.6423,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6441,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0945,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.3913
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1299,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0485,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5956
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3913,
"p_final_under": 0.5956,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.0367,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0367,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.0367,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010367,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010367,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ucrania at 40.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ucrania as the value side (40.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ucrania",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ucrania, but the model still strongly favours Ucrania.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0941,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.73,
"draw_prob": 0.2697,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4034,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.23
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.2167,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3269,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Irlanda del Norte",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ucrania"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0955,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0299,
"market_prob": 0.417,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1313,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.27,
"p_final": 0.5419
},
"p_final": 0.4469,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0035,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.0955,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4469
}
},
"edge": 0.314,
"ev": 0.679,
"implied_prob": 0.416,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0945,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0353,
"market_prob": 0.3559,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0945,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.3913
},
"p_final": 0.3913,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0408,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1299,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0485,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5956
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.3723,
"ev": 1.0367,
"implied_prob": 0.3577,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528927,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.0367,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3269,
"draw": 0.2697,
"home": 0.4034
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.679,
"implied_prob": 0.416,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.679,
"implied_prob": 0.416,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Irlanda del Norte",
"home": "Ucrania"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.945989,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0367,
"implied_prob": 0.3577,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0941,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4784,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4034,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1851,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528927,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T19:20:52.652585+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Naciones de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italia | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Francia | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Turquía | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bélgica | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
