The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Eslovaquia at 51.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Eslovaquia Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Eslovaquia; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 19:21 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Islas Feroe 1.79 — Eslovaquia 2.00
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Islas Feroe 1–1 Eslovaquia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1203,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.0,
"text": "-12.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6142,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0694,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5159,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Eslovaquia",
"sort_key": 5255.52,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"alert_team": "Islas Feroe",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.79,
"hero_label": "Eslovaquia",
"market_prob_pct": 61.4,
"market_team": "Eslovaquia",
"model_prob_pct": 51.6,
"model_team": "Eslovaquia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Eslovaquia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Eslovaquia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6447,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6447,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Eslovaquia at 51.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Eslovaquia as the value side (51.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Eslovaquia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +64.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +64.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+64.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Eslovaquia).",
"Decision strength: 8.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1203,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6142,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5159,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.641025641025641,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1952,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.21
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.79,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.79,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.0,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.79,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.0,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.79 \u00b7 Away xG 2.00 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +48%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"steam_team": "Islas Feroe",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Eslovaquia).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Eslovaquia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Eslovaquia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6447,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6447,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Eslovaquia at 51.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Eslovaquia as the value side (51.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Eslovaquia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +64.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +64.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+64.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Eslovaquia).",
"Decision strength: 8.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1203,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6142,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5159,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.641025641025641,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1952,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.21
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Islas Feroe 1.79 xG vs Eslovaquia 2.00 \u2192 Eslovaquia 51.6%",
"Market: Eslovaquia ~61.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Islas Feroe odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Eslovaquia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.75,
"fair_prob": 24.14,
"label": "Islas Feroe",
"market_prob": 14.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.02,
"fair_prob": 24.22,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.79,
"fair_prob": 51.63,
"label": "Eslovaquia",
"market_prob": 61.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 28.45,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.35,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.19,
"fair_prob": 73.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.19,
"fair_prob": 26.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.63,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Eslovaquia",
"market_prob_pct": 61.42,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Islas Feroe"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Eslovaquia\u0027s win probability at 61.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 51.6%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.79,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Eslovaquia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 61.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.8,
"model_prob_pct": 51.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Eslovaquia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Islas Feroe 1.79 xG vs Eslovaquia 2.00 \u2192 Eslovaquia 51.6%",
"Market: Eslovaquia ~61.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Islas Feroe odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Eslovaquia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.79,
"hero_label": "Eslovaquia",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Islas Feroe odds lengthened \u2191 +9.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Islas Feroe has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Eslovaquia. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Islas Feroe \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Eslovaquia. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Islas Feroe has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Islas Feroe \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Eslovaquia above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Islas Feroe has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.79,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 27.4 pp (at 51.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 27.4,
"max_prob_pct": 51.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Eslovaquia",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Eslovaquia higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.75,
"edge_pp": 9.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Islas Feroe",
"market_prob_pct": 14.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.02,
"edge_pp": 0.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.22,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.79,
"edge_pp": -9.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 51.63,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Eslovaquia",
"market_prob_pct": 61.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Islas Feroe \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Eslovaquia (61.4%).",
"Islas Feroe odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.1%, 6/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Eslovaquia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.1,
"closing_odds": 1.56,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.1,
"entry_odds": 1.56,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 68h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Islas Feroe (9.1%, 6/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.66",
"6.08",
"5.50"
],
"display": "7.00 \u2192 5.00 \u2192 6.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 68h 15m",
"pick_team": "Islas Feroe",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.5,
6.66,
6.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.66"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Islas Feroe",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 6.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Islas Feroe",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 6.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"pick_team": "Islas Feroe",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Islas Feroe",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "slovakia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Eslovaquia",
"away_team_id": 773,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/773.webp",
"away_team_name": "Eslovaquia",
"away_team_public_id": "2mrY35q9OYUV4k",
"away_team_slug": "slovakia",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528931,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Faroe-Islands",
"home_team_display_name": "Islas Feroe",
"home_team_id": 1098,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1098.webp",
"home_team_name": "Islas Feroe",
"home_team_public_id": "0DQfc8oDdFGINi",
"home_team_slug": "faroe-islands",
"ht.home_team_slug": "faroe-islands",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3gZmp0raJNWcwV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Torshavn",
"venue_name": "Torsvollur"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5115,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0503,
"ev": -0.1203,
"implied_prob": 0.6142,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6142,
"draw": 0.242,
"home": 0.1439
},
"model_prob": 0.5159,
"p_final": 0.5639
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2998,
"best_odd": 3.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.242,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6142,
"draw": 0.242,
"home": 0.1439
},
"model_prob": 0.2423,
"p_final": 0.2421
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1706,
"best_odd": 6.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0167,
"ev": 0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.1439,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6142,
"draw": 0.242,
"home": 0.1439
},
"model_prob": 0.2418,
"p_final": 0.1606
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.1251,
"ev": -0.1952,
"implied_prob": 0.641,
"model_prob": 0.5159
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.96,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0403,
"implied_prob": 0.2525,
"model_prob": 0.2423
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 6.66,
"edge": 0.0916,
"ev": 0.6101,
"implied_prob": 0.1502,
"model_prob": 0.2418
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1363,
"alpha_yes": 0.1239,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.3019,
"edge_yes": 0.3019,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5508,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.145,
"ev_yes": 0.6447,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": 0.0003,
"implied_no": 0.5709,
"implied_yes": 0.4291,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1363,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0408,
"ev": -0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.5686,
"model_prob": 0.269,
"p_final": 0.5277
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1239,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0371,
"ev": 0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"model_prob": 0.731,
"p_final": 0.4685
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5277,
"p_final_yes": 0.4685,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1361,
"alpha_under": 0.1501,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.7,
"edge_over": 0.2845,
"edge_under": -0.2835,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.606,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0202,
"ev_under": -0.5122,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1324,
"implied_over": 0.4455,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4474,
"implied_under": 0.5545,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1361,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0385,
"ev": 0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4858
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0423,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5104
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4858,
"p_final_under": 0.5104,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6447,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6447,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6447,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Eslovaquia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6447,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6447,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Eslovaquia at 51.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Eslovaquia as the value side (51.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Eslovaquia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +64.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +64.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+64.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 8.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1203,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6142,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5159,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.641025641025641,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1952,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
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"xg_gap": 0.21
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.731,
"draw_prob": 0.2423,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5159,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.21
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.1439,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2418,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Islas Feroe",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0503,
"ev": -0.1203,
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"max_ev_side": "home",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "Eslovaquia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0371,
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"model_prob": 0.731,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0408,
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"implied_prob": 0.5686,
"model_prob": 0.269,
"p_final": 0.5277
},
"p_final": 0.4685,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0003,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1239,
"best_odd": 2.135,
"edge": 0.0371,
"ev": 0.0003,
"implied_prob": 0.4314,
"model_prob": 0.731,
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}
},
"edge": 0.3019,
"ev": 0.6447,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.731,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0385,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1361,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0385,
"ev": 0.0202,
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"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4858
},
"p_final": 0.4858,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0202,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0423,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5104
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.2845,
"ev": 0.606,
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528931,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6447,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2423,
"home": 0.2418
},
"reason_codes": [
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"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6447,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.731,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6447,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.731,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Eslovaquia",
"home": "Islas Feroe"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.552975,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.606,
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1203,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.56,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6142,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5159,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.641025641025641,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1952,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528931,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T19:21:21.831384+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Naciones de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italia | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Francia | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Turquía | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bélgica | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
