Sí 56.4% · No 43.6%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -15.4% · EV No +11.2%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Adelaide Comets Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 36.9%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 36.8%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- West Adelaide -4.0 pp
- Amplitud
- 12/12
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, Adelaide Comets ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Adelaide Comets.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Comets | 36.89% | 36.84% | +0.1 pp |
| Empate | 28.99% | 25.07% | +3.9 pp |
| West Adelaide | 34.12% | 38.09% | -4.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+11.2% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Adelaide Comets · Probabilidad del modelo 36.9%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 36.8%
EV línea de consenso: -9.7%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -5.8% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -20.6% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -15.4% · EV No +11.2%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -15.4% · EV No +11.2%
Adelaide Comets market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Adelaide Comets
- Odds move
- 2.45 → 2.45 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 12/12
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.37
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4233,
"best_odd": 2.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0168,
"ev": -0.1371,
"implied_prob": 0.3809,
"model_prob": 0.3412,
"p_final": 0.3641
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2824,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0576,
"implied_prob": 0.2507,
"model_prob": 0.2898,
"p_final": 0.2618
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4496,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0968,
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"model_prob": 0.3689,
"p_final": 0.3687
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"edge_no": 0.0645,
"edge_yes": -0.0645,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1118,
"ev_yes": -0.154,
"implied_no": 0.3715,
"implied_yes": 0.6285,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": -0.1038,
"edge_under": 0.1038,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2056,
"ev_under": 0.2597,
"implied_over": 0.6098,
"implied_under": 0.3902,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2597,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.564,
"draw_prob": 0.2898,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3689,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0002,
"ev": -0.0968,
"implied_prob": 0.3684,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3689,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Adelaide Comets"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0645,
"ev": 0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.3715,
"model_prob": 0.436,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1038,
"ev": 0.2597,
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1527079,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2597,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3412,
"draw": 0.2898,
"home": 0.3689
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.3715,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.436,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1118,
"implied_prob": 0.3715,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.436,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "West Adelaide",
"home": "Adelaide Comets"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.128292,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2597,
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1527079,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:32:21.154242+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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South Australia NPL — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Playford City Patriots | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Adelaide City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Sturt Lions | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Adelaide United II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Campbelltown City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | FK Beograd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Croydon Kings | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Playford City Patriots | 8 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 19 |
| 2 | MetroStars | 8 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | West Torrens Birkalla | 8 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 19 |
| 4 | Sturt Lions | 8 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Campbelltown City | 8 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | Adelaide City | 8 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 14 |
| 7 | West Adelaide | 8 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Adelaide United II | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | FK Beograd | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Croydon Kings | 8 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 1 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 8 | 4 | 39 | -35 | 0 |
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