Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -23.7% · EV No +25%+
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- West Torrens Birkalla Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 37.3%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 42.2%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por West Torrens Birkalla, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (42.2% vs modelo 37.3%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
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Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Campbelltown City ↑ +3.1% 2.62 → 2.7
- Tipo de movimiento
- ⚠️ Mercado volátil
- Puntuación de vapor
- 11C
Limited conviction - Amplitud del mercado
- 2/13
- Fase
- Volátil
- Libro de referencia
- Bet365
Movimiento liderado por sharp: SBO - validación CLV
- +0.00 pp
Movimiento liderado por el sharp más destacado
Camino de probabilidades — Campbelltown City
🐢 Desplazamiento lento durante 12h
Abierto
2.83
Bajo/Alto
2.35
Actual
2.70
Narrativa de mercado
Precios volátiles bidireccionales en Campbelltown City (oscilación 2.83 → 2.35 → 2.70) — neto 3.1% pero alta volatilidad intradía.
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- West Torrens Birkalla -4.9 pp
- Amplitud
- 2/13
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se alargaron ↑ +3.1%.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, Campbelltown City ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 3.1%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte. La confirmación sigue siendo limitada (2/13 libros), lo que sugiere un interés temprano en lugar de un movimiento amplio del mercado.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Campbelltown City | 34.45% | 32.83% | +1.6 pp |
| Empate | 28.27% | 24.96% | +3.3 pp |
| West Torrens Birkalla | 37.28% | 42.21% | -4.9 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
West Torrens Birkalla · Probabilidad del modelo 37.3%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 42.2%
EV línea de consenso: -12.8%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -5.0% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.6%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -32.5% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -23.7% · EV No +25%+
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -23.7% · EV No +25%+
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Esperando el inicio
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.17
- Cierre
- 2.17
- CLV
- +0.0 pp
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"title": "Forecast Assessment",
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],
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"title": "Market Assessment"
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],
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
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"side": "home"
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{
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{
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],
"status": "aligned",
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"interpretation": {
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"paragraphs": [
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"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 West Torrens Birkalla, Market \u2192 West Torrens Birkalla, Recent sharp money \u2192 Campbelltown City.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
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"closing_odds": 2.17,
"clv_pending": true,
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Campbelltown City (swing 2.83 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.70) \u2014 net 3.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "2.83 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h",
"pick_team": "Campbelltown City",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.83"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Campbelltown City",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/13",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Campbelltown City",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_team_name": "Campbelltown City",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 16769,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16769.webp",
"away_team_name": "West Torrens Birkalla",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1527078,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_id": 3791,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3791.webp",
"home_team_name": "Campbelltown City",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_id": 194,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/194.webp",
"league_name": "South Australia NPL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 10:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Adelaide",
"venue_name": "Steve Woodcock Sports Centre"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4168,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1285,
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"model_prob": 0.373,
"p_final": 0.4016
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2853,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0497,
"implied_prob": 0.2496,
"model_prob": 0.2824,
"p_final": 0.2589
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.439,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.3283,
"model_prob": 0.3447,
"p_final": 0.3355
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.4,
"edge_no": 0.1329,
"edge_yes": -0.1329,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.365,
"ev_yes": -0.237,
"implied_no": 0.3221,
"implied_yes": 0.6779,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 2.85,
"edge_over": -0.1833,
"edge_under": 0.1833,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_under": 0.4763,
"implied_over": 0.6653,
"implied_under": 0.3347,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4763,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2824,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.373,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0205,
"ev": -0.1285,
"implied_prob": 0.4221,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.373,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "West Torrens Birkalla"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1329,
"ev": 0.365,
"implied_prob": 0.3221,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1833,
"ev": 0.4763,
"implied_prob": 0.3347,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1527078,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4763,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.373,
"draw": 0.2824,
"home": 0.3447
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.365,
"implied_prob": 0.3221,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.365,
"implied_prob": 0.3221,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "West Torrens Birkalla",
"home": "Campbelltown City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.172706,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4763,
"implied_prob": 0.3347,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1527078,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T12:26:35.523476+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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South Australia NPL — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Playford City Patriots | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Adelaide City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Sturt Lions | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Adelaide United II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Campbelltown City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | FK Beograd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Croydon Kings | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Playford City Patriots | 8 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 19 |
| 2 | MetroStars | 8 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | West Torrens Birkalla | 8 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 19 |
| 4 | Sturt Lions | 8 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Campbelltown City | 8 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 11 |
| 6 | Adelaide City | 8 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 14 |
| 7 | West Adelaide | 8 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Adelaide United II | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | FK Beograd | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Croydon Kings | 8 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 1 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 8 | 4 | 39 | -35 | 0 |
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