Sí 56.4% · No 43.6%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +5.5% · EV No -18.9%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Belshina Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 37.4%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 26.3%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Bate Borisov -11.5 pp
- Amplitud
- 7/7
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Bate Borisov que la estimación justa actual.
Sin embargo, Belshina ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Belshina.
- Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
- El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belshina | 37.36% | 26.31% | +11.1 pp |
| Empate | 28.98% | 28.55% | +0.4 pp |
| Bate Borisov | 33.67% | 45.14% | -11.5 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Valor posible en 1X2: Belshina (+1.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+6.3% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+5.5% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (5.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Belshina · Probabilidad del modelo 37.3%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 26.3%
EV línea de consenso: +1.7%
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.5/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +6.3% ·
EV inferior -15.5%
(4 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +5.5% · EV No -18.9%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +5.5% · EV No -18.9%
Belshina market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Belshina
- Odds move
- 3.56 → 3.56 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 7/7
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.04
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"country_code": "BY",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/by.svg",
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"league_country": "Belarus",
"league_id": 116,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/116.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League",
"league_season": 2026,
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"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bobruisk",
"venue_name": "Spartak Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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},
"markets": {
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"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3728,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0426,
"ev": -0.1625,
"implied_prob": 0.4512,
"model_prob": 0.3368,
"p_final": 0.4085
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2976,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.0699,
"implied_prob": 0.2846,
"model_prob": 0.2899,
"p_final": 0.2862
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.251,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0274,
"ev": 0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.2643,
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"p_final": 0.2916
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.86,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"edge_no": -0.0647,
"edge_yes": 0.0647,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.189,
"ev_yes": 0.0547,
"implied_no": 0.5007,
"implied_yes": 0.4993,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.71,
"edge_over": 0.0564,
"edge_under": -0.0564,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0626,
"ev_under": -0.1553,
"implied_over": 0.4496,
"implied_under": 0.5504,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0626,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.564,
"draw_prob": 0.2899,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3733,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0274,
"ev": 0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.2643,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Belshina"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0647,
"ev": 0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.564,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0564,
"ev": 0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.4496,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1525888,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0626,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3368,
"draw": 0.2899,
"home": 0.3733
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.564,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.564,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bate Borisov",
"home": "Belshina"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031676,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.4496,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.506,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1525888,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:47:36.454105+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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