Sí 54.1% · No 45.9%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -22.1% · EV No +22.1%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Lambton Jaffas Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 41.4%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 45.3%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Lambton Jaffas, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (45.3% vs modelo 41.4%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
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Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Charlestown City Blues ↓ -32.5% 4.0 → 2.7
- Tipo de movimiento
- 🔥 Steam fuerte
- Puntuación de vapor
- 92A+
Strong multi-book steam - Amplitud del mercado
- 6/8
- Fase
- Reajuste agresivo
- Libro de referencia
- Bet365
Movimiento liderado por sharp: Betfair - validación CLV
- Waiting for Close
Mayor movimiento del día
Camino de probabilidades — Charlestown City Blues
↔ Movimiento gradual durante 8h
Abierto
4.50
Bajo/Alto
2.70
Actual
2.70
Narrativa de mercado
6/8 casas sincronizadas en Charlestown City Blues (32.5% steam, puntuación 92) — repricing de alta convicción multi-casa supera movimientos aislados.
Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Empate +4.9 pp
- Amplitud
- 6/8
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se acortaron ↓ -32.5%.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, el interés de compra reciente ha estado en Charlestown City Blues, y las probabilidades se han reducido en 32.5%.
Interés de compra en Charlestown City Blues: probabilidades reducidas en 32.5%.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlestown City Blues | 29.25% | 30.2% | -0.9 pp |
| Empate | 29.36% | 24.49% | +4.9 pp |
| Lambton Jaffas | 41.4% | 45.31% | -3.9 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+22.1% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Lambton Jaffas · Probabilidad del modelo 41.4%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 45.3%
EV línea de consenso: -12.7%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -4.4% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.4%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -29.1% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(5 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -22.1% · EV No +22.1%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -22.1% · EV No +22.1%
Charlestown City Blues market context before kickoff
🔥 Steam fuerte on Charlestown City Blues
- Odds move
- 4.00 → 2.70 (↓ -32.5%)
- Market breadth
- 6/8
- Steam score
- 92 (A+)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 3.7
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"country_code": "AU",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1523766,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_id": 10203,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10203.webp",
"home_team_name": "Charlestown City Blues",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_id": 481,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/481.webp",
"league_name": "Northern NSW NPL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 01:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4933,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0585,
"ev": -0.2041,
"implied_prob": 0.5323,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.4738
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2711,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0378,
"implied_prob": 0.2293,
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.2467
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2756,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0497,
"implied_prob": 0.2385,
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.2534
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.56,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"edge_no": 0.0934,
"edge_yes": -0.0934,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.175,
"ev_yes": -0.221,
"implied_no": 0.3656,
"implied_yes": 0.6344,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": -0.1524,
"edge_under": 0.1524,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"implied_over": 0.6344,
"implied_under": 0.3656,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0585,
"ev": -0.2041,
"implied_prob": 0.5323,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Lambton Jaffas"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0934,
"ev": 0.175,
"implied_prob": 0.3656,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1524,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3656,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1523766,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4137,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.2927
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.175,
"implied_prob": 0.3656,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.175,
"implied_prob": 0.3656,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lambton Jaffas",
"home": "Charlestown City Blues"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3656,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1523766,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T10:20:53.584145+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Australia. Northern NSW NPL Predicciones
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