Sí 54.0% · No 46.0%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -26.0% · EV No +25%+
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Weston Bears Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 41.9%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 49.9%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Weston Bears, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (49.9% vs modelo 41.9%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
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Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Belmont Swansea ↑ +11.1% 2.88 → 3.2
- Tipo de movimiento
- 📈 Steam
- Puntuación de vapor
- 57B
Moderate sharp signal - Amplitud del mercado
- 6/11
- Fase
- Reajuste agresivo
- Libro de referencia
- Bet365
- validación CLV
- Waiting for Close
Mayor movimiento del día
Camino de probabilidades — Belmont Swansea
↔ Movimiento gradual durante 8h
Abierto
3.50
Bajo/Alto
2.88
Actual
3.20
Narrativa de mercado
Steam multi-casa en Belmont Swansea (11.1%, 6/11) — acortamiento alineado, no un blip de una sola casa.
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Weston Bears -8.0 pp
- Amplitud
- 6/11
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se alargaron ↑ +11.1%.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
Sin embargo, Belmont Swansea ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 11.1%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
Aléjate de Belmont Swansea: las probabilidades aumentan con 11.1% (debilitamiento del apoyo).
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weston Bears | 41.88% | 49.92% | -8.0 pp |
| Empate | 29.31% | 22.52% | +6.8 pp |
| Belmont Swansea | 28.81% | 27.56% | +1.2 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Weston Bears · Probabilidad del modelo 41.9%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 49.9%
EV línea de consenso: -17.8%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -2.8% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.4%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -34.4% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(7 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -26.0% · EV No +25%+
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -26.0% · EV No +25%+
Belmont Swansea market context before kickoff
📈 Steam on Belmont Swansea
- Odds move
- 2.88 → 3.20 (↑ +11.1%)
- Market breadth
- 6/11
- Steam score
- 57 (B)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.8
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_id": 10210,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10210.webp",
"home_team_name": "Weston Bears",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_id": 481,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/481.webp",
"league_name": "Northern NSW NPL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 04:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2979,
"best_odd": 3.115,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0014,
"ev": -0.0919,
"implied_prob": 0.2929,
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.2915
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1804,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2281,
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.2399
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5456,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1504,
"implied_prob": 0.479,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.446
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.33,
"edge_no": 0.1648,
"edge_yes": -0.1648,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.495,
"ev_yes": -0.2818,
"implied_no": 0.2952,
"implied_yes": 0.7048,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.75,
"edge_over": -0.2332,
"edge_under": 0.2332,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_under": 0.9425,
"implied_over": 0.7152,
"implied_under": 0.2848,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.9425,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1504,
"implied_prob": 0.479,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Weston Bears"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1648,
"ev": 0.495,
"implied_prob": 0.2952,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2332,
"ev": 0.9425,
"implied_prob": 0.2848,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1523763,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.9425,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2882,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4185
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.495,
"implied_prob": 0.2952,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.495,
"implied_prob": 0.2952,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Belmont Swansea",
"home": "Weston Bears"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.341751,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.9425,
"implied_prob": 0.2848,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1523763,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T07:19:10.043485+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Australia. Northern NSW NPL Predicciones
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