Sí 60.2% · No 39.8%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -32.3%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Evaluación de predicción
Predicción confiable
- Favorito
- Ceara Ligeramente favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 51.9%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 51.3%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto el modelo como el mercado identifican a Ceara como el probable ganador. La divergencia actual se mantiene dentro de límites normales.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Empate -3.3 pp
- Amplitud
- 8/11
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 51.91% | 51.29% | +0.6 pp |
| Empate | 25.29% | 28.61% | -3.3 pp |
| Botafogo SP | 22.79% | 20.1% | +2.7 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Ceara · Probabilidad del modelo 51.9%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 51.3%
EV línea de consenso: -6.6%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -4.8% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 10.4%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 7.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +25%+ ·
EV inferior -35.6%
(8 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -32.3%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -32.3%
Ceara market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Ceara
- Odds move
- 1.85 → 1.85 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 8/11
- Steam score
- 22 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Predicción generada
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 3.25
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": -0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.5129,
"model_prob": 0.5186,
"p_final": 0.5163
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"edge_no": -0.1673,
"edge_yes": 0.1673,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3234,
"ev_yes": 0.3244,
"implied_no": 0.5653,
"implied_yes": 0.4347,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.46,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": 0.199,
"edge_under": -0.199,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4514,
"ev_under": -0.3563,
"implied_over": 0.391,
"implied_under": 0.609,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4514,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.602,
"draw_prob": 0.2534,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5186,
"over_prob": 0.59,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"under_prob": 0.41,
"xg_diff": 0.68
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0034,
"ev": -0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.5129,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5186,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ceara"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1673,
"ev": 0.3244,
"implied_prob": 0.4347,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.199,
"ev": 0.4514,
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520732,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4514,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.228,
"draw": 0.2534,
"home": 0.5186
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3244,
"implied_prob": 0.4347,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.602,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3244,
"implied_prob": 0.4347,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.602,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Botafogo SP",
"home": "Ceara"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.332908,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4514,
"implied_prob": 0.391,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.59,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520732,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T08:48:51.504826+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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