Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -17.2% · EV No +3.7%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Kuressaare Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 35.6%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 34.6%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Trans Narva -4.0 pp
- Amplitud
- 2/2
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, Kuressaare ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Kuressaare.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 35.64% | 34.61% | +1.0 pp |
| Empate | 29.65% | 26.72% | +2.9 pp |
| Trans Narva | 34.7% | 38.66% | -4.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+6.2% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+3.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Convicción moderada (5.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Kuressaare · Probabilidad del modelo 35.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 34.6%
EV línea de consenso: -8.0%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -6.3% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.6%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.5/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -20.9% ·
EV inferior +6.2%
(1 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -17.2% · EV No +3.7%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -17.2% · EV No +3.7%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.35
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"match": {
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"country_code": "EE",
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"league_logo": "/static/leagues/329.webp",
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"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kuressaare",
"venue_name": "Kuressaare Linnastaadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
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"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
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"breakdown_resolved": [
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"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1306,
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},
"draw": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.2672,
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2757
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4434,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": -0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3505
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.28,
"best_yes_odd": 1.52,
"edge_no": 0.055,
"edge_yes": -0.055,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0374,
"ev_yes": -0.1716,
"implied_no": 0.4,
"implied_yes": 0.6,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.64,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.0736,
"edge_under": 0.0736,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2095,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"implied_over": 0.5556,
"implied_under": 0.4444,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": -0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.3461,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kuressaare"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.055,
"ev": 0.0374,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0736,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513570,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Trans Narva",
"home": "Kuressaare"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.017058,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513570,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T06:43:41.247575+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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