Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Kalju Nomme Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 35.6%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 49.2%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Kalju Nomme, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (49.2% vs modelo 35.6%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Kalju Nomme -13.6 pp
- Amplitud
- 10/10
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Kalju Nomme que la estimación justa actual.
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en Kalju Nomme.
- Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
- El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju Nomme | 35.64% | 49.24% | -13.6 pp |
| Empate | 29.65% | 25.59% | +4.1 pp |
| Paide | 34.7% | 25.17% | +9.5 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+7.2% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Modelo magro (no es una apuesta predeterminada): {elegir}
- Significant line move — see market context below.
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -5.7% · EV No -0.8%
Kalju Nomme market context before kickoff
— Seguimiento on Kalju Nomme
- Odds move
- 1.85 → 1.85 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 10/10
- Steam score
- 40 (B)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.85
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.07,
"edge_over": -0.0463,
"edge_under": 0.0463,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1276,
"ev_under": 0.0723,
"implied_over": 0.5283,
"implied_under": 0.4717,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0723,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0651,
"ev": -0.2095,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kalju Nomme"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0064,
"ev": -0.0081,
"implied_prob": 0.4486,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0463,
"ev": 0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513567,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0723,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Paide",
"home": "Kalju Nomme"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.026216,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4717,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513567,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T04:33:05.971270+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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