Sí 54.5% · No 45.5%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -16.6% · EV No +13.8%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Lilla Torg W Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 36.1%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 34.6%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
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Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Lilla Torg W ↓ -10.7% 2.8 → 2.5
- Tipo de movimiento
- ⚡ Movimiento liderado por sharp
- Puntuación de vapor
- 34C
Limited conviction - Amplitud del mercado
- 2/10
- Fase
- Reajuste agresivo
- Libro de referencia
- Bet365
- validación CLV
- Waiting for Close
Mayor movimiento del día
Camino de probabilidades — Lilla Torg W
📈 Reajuste activo durante 3h 59m
Abierto
2.80
Bajo/Alto
2.40
Actual
2.50
Narrativa de mercado
Bet365 lideró el repricing en Lilla Torg W (10.7%) — casa sharp movió antes del seguimiento más amplio.
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Fuerte
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Staffanstorp United -4.6 pp
- Amplitud
- 2/10
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se acortaron ↓ -10.7%.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo están ampliamente alineados. Cualquier pequeña brecha de precios probablemente refleja un redondeo o un margen de las casas de apuestas, no un desacuerdo estructural.
Sin embargo, el interés de compra reciente ha estado en Lilla Torg W, y las probabilidades se han reducido en 10.7%. La confirmación sigue siendo limitada (2/10 libros), lo que sugiere un interés temprano en lugar de un movimiento amplio del mercado.
Interés de compra en Lilla Torg W: probabilidades reducidas en 10.7%.
- Los precios actuales se mantienen cerca de la base del modelo.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lilla Torg W | 36.11% | 34.6% | +1.5 pp |
| Empate | 29.65% | 26.56% | +3.1 pp |
| Staffanstorp United | 34.24% | 38.84% | -4.6 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+21.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+13.8% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Lilla Torg W · Probabilidad del modelo 36.1%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 34.6%
EV línea de consenso: -8.0%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -6.7% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -21.9% ·
EV inferior +21.7%
(8 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -16.6% · EV No +13.8%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -16.6% · EV No +13.8%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.33
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Lilla Torg W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/10",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Lilla Torg W",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Lilla Torg W",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 26891,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/26891.webp",
"away_team_name": "Staffanstorp United",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1511054,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_id": 24079,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24079.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lilla Torg W",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_id": 597,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/597.webp",
"league_name": "Division 2 - S\u00f6dra G\u00f6taland",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4189,
"best_odd": 2.325,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0193,
"ev": -0.1418,
"implied_prob": 0.3884,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3691
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.286,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.2656,
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2745
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4399,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3526
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"edge_no": 0.0696,
"edge_yes": -0.0696,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"implied_no": 0.3854,
"implied_yes": 0.6146,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": -0.1023,
"edge_under": 0.1023,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"implied_over": 0.5843,
"implied_under": 0.4157,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0798,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lilla Torg W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0696,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3854,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1023,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1511054,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3854,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3854,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Staffanstorp United",
"home": "Lilla Torg W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1511054,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T06:56:48.431744+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predicciones
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