Linero vs Karlskrona Predicción, Cuotas y Consejos de Apuestas con IA

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "31fc32863a0af67d863652b220db3947ccde3e7e26ccd91dbc34c09e53c9f3c5",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.42,
      "away_win_prob": 0.4091,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.459,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.294,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.44,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.18,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2969,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Karlskrona",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Karlskrona"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.42,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Karlskrona",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0052,
        "edge_gap": 0.113,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4147,
        "model_prob": 0.4096,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 41.0,
          "draw": 29.4,
          "home": 29.7
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
          "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
          "odd": 2.2
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
          "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
          "odd": 2.18
        },
        {
          "affi_link": null,
          "bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
          "odd": 2.17
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
          "odd": 2.17
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.2,
        "bookmaker_affi": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
        "bookmaker_id": 11,
        "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
        "display_market": "Karlskrona Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.41,
        "market_odds": 2.18,
        "model_odds": 2.44,
        "overround": 10.6,
        "prob_edge": -4.5,
        "value_pct": -9.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 2,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 75.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 4,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 69.3,
        "no_prob": 45.9,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 54.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.42,
        "home_expected": 1.18,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 10.5
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.8
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 7.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Linero or Draw",
            "prob": 59.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Linero or Karlskrona",
            "prob": 70.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Karlskrona",
            "prob": 70.3
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Linero or Karlskrona",
        "pick_prob": 70.6
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 40.9,
        "draw_pct": 29.4,
        "home_pct": 29.7,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Karlskrona"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 9,
        "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
        "edge": 7.3,
        "implied_prob": 27.4,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 29.4,
        "odds": 3.65
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "has_data": false
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.4
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.18,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.3107,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -31.1,
          "text": "-31.1%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.295,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 29.5,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.295,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10415.5,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": false,
        "ev_no": null,
        "ev_no_display": null,
        "ev_yes": null,
        "ev_yes_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": null,
        "no_prob": 45.9,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.1
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1005,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -10.1,
          "text": "-10.1%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4168,
        "max_ev": -0.0509,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -5.1,
          "text": "-5.1%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.4096,
        "side_label": "Karlskrona",
        "sort_key": 1787.275,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.2,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.4
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "",
        "alert_breadth_note": "",
        "alert_move": "",
        "alert_team": "",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 4.2,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 4.22,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 41.7,
        "market_team": "Karlskrona",
        "model_prob_pct": 40.9,
        "model_team": "Karlskrona",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
        "steam_tier": "",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -3.45,
          "fair_prob": 29.69,
          "label": "Linero",
          "market_prob": 33.14,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.22,
          "fair_prob": 29.4,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 25.18,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.77,
          "fair_prob": 40.91,
          "label": "Karlskrona",
          "market_prob": 41.68,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.41,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 63.61,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 15.41,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 36.39,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 54.1,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 45.9,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 4.22,
        "fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "hero_team_name": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 25.18,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Linero"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 4.22,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Karlskrona",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 41.7,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Karlskrona, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Linero remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 4.22,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 4.22,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -3.45,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Linero",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.14,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.22,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.18,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.77,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Karlskrona",
            "market_prob_pct": 41.68,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Karlskrona (41.7%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Karlskrona, Market \u2192 Karlskrona, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": null,
        "closing_odds": null,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "market_monitoring",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
        "entry_implied_pct": 27.78,
        "entry_odds": 3.6,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "4/4",
        "current_odds": 2.78,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.78,
        "pick_team": "Linero",
        "steam_score": 28,
        "steam_team_name": "Linero",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.2,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 6683,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6683.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Karlskrona",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1510956,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 25572,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25572.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Linero",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 597,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/597.webp",
      "league_name": "Division 2 - S\u00f6dra G\u00f6taland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 12:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4451,
            "best_odd": 2.175,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0032,
            "ev": -0.1005,
            "implied_prob": 0.4168,
            "model_prob": 0.4096,
            "p_final": 0.4136
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.281,
            "best_odd": 3.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0118,
            "ev": -0.0509,
            "implied_prob": 0.2518,
            "model_prob": 0.2939,
            "p_final": 0.2636
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4264,
            "best_odd": 2.735,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0149,
            "ev": -0.1342,
            "implied_prob": 0.3314,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.3166
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.43,
          "best_under_odd": 2.5,
          "edge_over": -0.1541,
          "edge_under": 0.1541,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.3107,
          "ev_under": 0.295,
          "implied_over": 0.6361,
          "implied_under": 0.3639,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
          "draw_prob": 0.2939,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.24
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0032,
          "ev": -0.1005,
          "implied_prob": 0.4168,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4096,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Karlskrona"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.541,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1541,
          "ev": 0.295,
          "implied_prob": 0.3639,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1510956,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.295,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4096,
        "draw": 0.2939,
        "home": 0.2965
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Karlskrona",
        "home": "Linero"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.081295,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.295,
        "implied_prob": 0.3639,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1510956,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T04:36:27.744300+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}