Sí 56.4% · No 43.6%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -15.4% · EV No +14.7%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Sölvesborg Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 37.4%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 44.2%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Sölvesborg, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (44.2% vs modelo 37.4%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Sölvesborg -6.8 pp
- Amplitud
- 9/9
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado y el modelo coinciden en términos generales en {equipo}. La divergencia restante puede reflejar diferencias en los supuestos de fortaleza del equipo más que un desacuerdo direccional.
Sin embargo, Karlshamn ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Karlshamn.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karlshamn | 33.67% | 30.97% | +2.7 pp |
| Empate | 28.98% | 24.86% | +4.1 pp |
| Sölvesborg | 37.36% | 44.17% | -6.8 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+14.7% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Sölvesborg · Probabilidad del modelo 37.3%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 44.2%
EV línea de consenso: -15.5%
Mejor línea disponible (casa de apuestas): -5.7% vehículo eléctrico
Algunas cuotas outlier de casas de apuestas pueden seguir mostrando un pequeño valor teórico frente a la línea de consenso anterior.
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.2%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -22.6% ·
EV inferior +25%+
(8 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -15.4% · EV No +14.7%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -15.4% · EV No +14.7%
Karlshamn market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Karlshamn
- Odds move
- 3.10 → 3.10 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 9/9
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.04
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_id": 12615,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12615.webp",
"home_team_name": "Karlshamn",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_id": 597,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/597.webp",
"league_name": "Division 2 - S\u00f6dra G\u00f6taland",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4038,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1553,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"p_final": 0.4141
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 3.625,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0567,
"implied_prob": 0.2486,
"model_prob": 0.2899,
"p_final": 0.2602
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4317,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0648,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"model_prob": 0.3368,
"p_final": 0.3214
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"edge_no": 0.0724,
"edge_yes": -0.0724,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1467,
"ev_yes": -0.154,
"implied_no": 0.3636,
"implied_yes": 0.6364,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": -0.1121,
"edge_under": 0.1121,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2258,
"ev_under": 0.2597,
"implied_over": 0.6181,
"implied_under": 0.3819,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2597,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.564,
"draw_prob": 0.2899,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3733,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1553,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "S\u00f6lvesborg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0724,
"ev": 0.1467,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.436,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1121,
"ev": 0.2597,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1510955,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2597,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3733,
"draw": 0.2899,
"home": 0.3368
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1467,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.436,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1467,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.436,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"home": "Karlshamn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.128292,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2597,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1510955,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:54:22.410186+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predicciones
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