AI correctly predicted the Tristán Suárez win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Tristán Suárez Tristán Suárez ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midland | 32.9% | 40.9% | -8.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 35.5% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Tristán Suárez | 37.5% | 23.6% | +13.9 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Tristán Suárez's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.6%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Tristán Suárez win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Tristán Suárez.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tristán Suárez more conservatively (23.6% vs model 37.5%, 13.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tristán Suárez win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Midland 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Tristán Suárez 37.6%
- xG · Midland 1.25 — Tristán Suárez 1.35
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Midland 2.33 · Draw 2.68 · Tristán Suárez 4.03
- Implied 1X2 · Midland 40.9% · Draw 35.5% · Tristán Suárez 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Midland 2.33 · Draw 2.68 · Tristán Suárez 4.03
- Implied 1X2 · Midland 40.9% · Draw 35.5% · Tristán Suárez 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tristán Suárez win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
10/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.03
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tristán Suárez win · Midland 0–1 Tristán Suárez
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"consensus_odds": 4.03,
"decision": "value_bet",
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0408,
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},
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{
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"alert_team": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.9,
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"hero_edge_pp": 13.92,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"label": "Disagree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +63.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +63.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +63.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+63.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0408,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2362,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24813895781637715,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+51.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.92,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.92,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"steam_team": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +63.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +63.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +63.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+63.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0408,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2362,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24813895781637715,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+51.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Midland 1.25 xG vs Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez 1.35 \u2192 Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez 37.5%",
"Market: Midland ~23.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.01,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Midland",
"market_prob": 40.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.91,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 35.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.92,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"market_prob": 23.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.92,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.92,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.53,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 37.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.53,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 62.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"market_prob_pct": 23.62,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez\u0027s win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.6%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.92,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.9,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Midland 1.25 xG vs Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez 1.35 \u2192 Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez 37.5%",
"Market: Midland ~23.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.92,
"hero_label": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez odds lengthened \u2191 +5.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez (\u2191 +5.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.9,
"lead": "The model rates Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.01,
"edge_pp": -8.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Midland",
"market_prob_pct": 40.86,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.91,
"edge_pp": -5.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.92,
"edge_pp": 13.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"market_prob_pct": 23.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Midland (23.6%).",
"Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.9%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, Market \u2192 Midland, while Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.81,
"closing_odds": 4.03,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.81,
"entry_odds": 4.03,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez (5.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.03",
"3.71",
"3.40"
],
"display": "4.06 \u2192 3.29 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 2m",
"pick_team": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.06"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.29"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
4.03,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.3",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.03"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tristan-suarez",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"away_team_id": 1965,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1965.webp",
"away_team_name": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"away_team_public_id": "5aef4ZOGD2fJzb",
"away_team_slug": "tristan-suarez",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498843,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Midland",
"home_team_id": 1963,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1963.webp",
"home_team_name": "Midland",
"home_team_public_id": "1HSawS3NOcQbDt",
"home_team_slug": "midland",
"ht.home_team_slug": "midland",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 19:30:00",
"public_id": "4m1wdDytROyNCL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1582,
"best_odd": 4.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": 0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2362,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2362,
"draw": 0.3552,
"home": 0.4086
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.2583
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4098,
"best_odd": 2.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0244,
"ev": -0.1135,
"implied_prob": 0.3552,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2362,
"draw": 0.3552,
"home": 0.4086
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3308
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3961,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0316,
"ev": -0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.4086,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2362,
"draw": 0.3552,
"home": 0.4086
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3769
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.03,
"edge": 0.1275,
"ev": 0.5139,
"implied_prob": 0.2481,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.68,
"edge": -0.0775,
"ev": -0.2077,
"implied_prob": 0.3731,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.1005,
"ev": -0.2341,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.187,
"alpha_yes": 0.136,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1653,
"edge_yes": 0.1653,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2856,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1247,
"ev_yes": 0.4279,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0258,
"implied_no": 0.6203,
"implied_yes": 0.3797,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.187,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5875
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.136,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4042
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5875,
"p_final_yes": 0.4042,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1336,
"alpha_under": 0.1837,
"best_over_odd": 3.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.96,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.33,
"edge_over": 0.1792,
"edge_under": -0.1792,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6388,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0143,
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1243,
"implied_over": 0.3028,
"implied_over_mf": 0.31,
"implied_under": 0.6972,
"implied_under_mf": 0.69,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1336,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.0143,
"implied_prob": 0.31,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.333
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1837,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0316,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.69,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6584
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.333,
"p_final_under": 0.6584,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6388,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +63.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +63.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +63.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+63.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez, but the model still strongly favours Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0408,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2362,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24813895781637715,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+51.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.03,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": 0.0408,
"implied_prob": 0.2362,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.136,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0222,
"market_prob": 0.3821,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.187,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0305,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6179,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5875
},
"p_final": 0.4042,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0258,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.136,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": -0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.3821,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4042
}
},
"edge": 0.1653,
"ev": 0.4279,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1336,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"edge": 0.023,
"market_prob": 0.31,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1336,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.0143,
"implied_prob": 0.31,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.333
},
"p_final": 0.333,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0143,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1837,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0316,
"ev": -0.1243,
"implied_prob": 0.69,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6584
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1792,
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.3028,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498843,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6388,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.3028,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.3028,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Trist\u00e1n Su\u00e1rez",
"home": "Midland"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.233206,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4279,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0408,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2362,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24813895781637715,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5141,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+51.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498843,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T19:29:15.190276+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
