The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Chaco For Ever at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Chaco For Ever Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Chaco For Ever; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Chaco For Ever 1.32 — Defensores de Belgrano 1.28
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 20:20 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Chaco For Ever 2–2 Defensores de Belgrano
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "monitor",
"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.119,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4446,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.041,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2277,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"sort_key": 5232.8,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"alert_team": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.57,
"hero_label": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"market_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Chaco For Ever",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chaco For Ever)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chaco For Ever)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4942,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5031,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chaco For Ever at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chaco For Ever as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chaco For Ever",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chaco For Ever).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.119,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4446,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2277,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.57,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.57,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"steam_team": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chaco For Ever)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chaco For Ever)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4942,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5031,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chaco For Ever at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chaco For Ever as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chaco For Ever",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chaco For Ever).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.119,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4446,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2277,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chaco For Ever 1.32 xG vs Defensores de Belgrano 1.28 \u2192 Chaco For Ever 36.1%",
"Market: Chaco For Ever ~44.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Defensores de Belgrano odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chaco For Ever with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.35,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Chaco For Ever",
"market_prob": 44.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.21,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.57,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"market_prob": 21.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.02,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.02,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.32,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.32,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 12.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"market_prob_pct": 21.67,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Defensores de Belgrano"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Defensores de Belgrano\u0027s win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.7%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 12.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chaco For Ever",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Chaco For Ever \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chaco For Ever 1.32 xG vs Defensores de Belgrano 1.28 \u2192 Chaco For Ever 36.1%",
"Market: Chaco For Ever ~44.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Defensores de Belgrano odds \u2191 +20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chaco For Ever with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 12.57,
"hero_label": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Defensores de Belgrano odds lengthened \u2191 +20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Defensores de Belgrano.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Defensores de Belgrano.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Defensores de Belgrano.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Defensores de Belgrano."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Defensores de Belgrano more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Defensores de Belgrano (\u2191 +20.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Defensores de Belgrano."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"largest_gap_pp": 12.6,
"lead": "The model rates Defensores de Belgrano considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.35,
"edge_pp": -8.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chaco For Ever",
"market_prob_pct": 44.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.21,
"edge_pp": -4.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.86,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.57,
"edge_pp": 12.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"market_prob_pct": 21.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Defensores de Belgrano.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Chaco For Ever (44.5%).",
"However, Defensores de Belgrano has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.0%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Chaco For Ever \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 22.78,
"closing_odds": 4.39,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 22.78,
"entry_odds": 4.39,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 133h 20m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Defensores de Belgrano together (20.0% drift, score 62) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.46",
"3.98",
"3.50"
],
"display": "4.46 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 133h 20m",
"pick_team": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.46"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
4.39,
4.46,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,1.3 37.3,0.0 56.0,4.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.46"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Defensores de Belgrano odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Defensores de Belgrano odds \u2191 +20.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "defensores-de-belgrano",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"away_team_id": 1067,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1067.webp",
"away_team_name": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"away_team_public_id": "1QXpf5BAyqeXRH",
"away_team_slug": "defensores-de-belgrano",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498852,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Chaco For Ever",
"home_team_id": 1946,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1946.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chaco For Ever",
"home_team_public_id": "4QDtXMX8ePVsWb",
"home_team_slug": "chaco-for-ever",
"ht.home_team_slug": "chaco-for-ever",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 20:00:00",
"public_id": "2nD068dbFig7fa",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Resistencia",
"venue_name": "Estadio Juan Alberto Garcia"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1623,
"best_odd": 4.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.2167,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.3386,
"home": 0.4446
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2371
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4217,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.3386,
"home": 0.4446
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3209
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3935,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.4446,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2167,
"draw": 0.3386,
"home": 0.4446
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4117
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.39,
"edge": 0.1146,
"ev": 0.5031,
"implied_prob": 0.2278,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.0592,
"ev": -0.1663,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": -0.1064,
"ev": -0.2276,
"implied_prob": 0.4673,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1905,
"alpha_yes": 0.1385,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1532,
"edge_yes": 0.1532,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2856,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1281,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0343,
"implied_no": 0.6082,
"implied_yes": 0.3918,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1905,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.6086,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5793
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1385,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4127
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5793,
"p_final_yes": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1381,
"alpha_under": 0.1899,
"best_over_odd": 3.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.42,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1602,
"edge_under": -0.1602,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4942,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0246,
"ev_under": -0.2644,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1247,
"implied_over": 0.3218,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3269,
"implied_under": 0.6782,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6731,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1381,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0246,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3483
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1899,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6731,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6436
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3483,
"p_final_under": 0.6436,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4942,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5031,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4942,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chaco For Ever)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4942,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5031,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chaco For Ever at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chaco For Ever as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chaco For Ever",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +49.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Chaco For Ever).",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.119,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4446,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2277,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.2167,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0329,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.4446,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chaco For Ever"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1385,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0213,
"market_prob": 0.3914,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1905,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1281,
"implied_prob": 0.6086,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5793
},
"p_final": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1385,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3914,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4127
}
},
"edge": 0.1532,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.3918,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1381,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.3269,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1381,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0246,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3483
},
"p_final": 0.3483,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0246,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1899,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0295,
"ev": -0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.6731,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6436
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1602,
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498852,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4942,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3218,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"home": "Chaco For Ever"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.3918,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.119,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4446,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4672897196261682,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2277,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498852,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T19:59:25.681439+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 56 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 53 |
| 5 | Colón de Santa Fe | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 46 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 45 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 32 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 37 |
| 12 | San Telmo | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 13 | Racing de Córdoba | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 14 | Atlético Mitre | 32 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 35 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 33 |
| 16 | All Boys | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 33 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 32 | 51 | 32 | +19 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 53 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 32 | 42 | 29 | +13 | 56 |
| 4 | Colón de Santa Fe | 32 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 52 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 61 |
| 6 | Chaco For Ever | 32 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 32 | 29 | 27 | +2 | 45 |
| 8 | Racing de Córdoba | 32 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 37 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 32 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 35 |
| 10 | San Telmo | 32 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 37 |
| 11 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 45 |
| 12 | Almirante Brown | 32 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 46 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 32 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 40 |
| 14 | Defensores de Belgrano | 32 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 37 |
| 15 | San Miguel | 32 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 31 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 32 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 32 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 33 |
| 18 | All Boys | 32 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 33 |
