AI correctly predicted the Colegiales win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Colegiales Colegiales ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético Güemes | 32.9% | 27.4% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.7% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Colegiales | 37.5% | 41.9% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Club Atlético Güemes's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.4%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Colegiales win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Club Atlético Güemes.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Colegiales more conservatively (32.0% vs model 37.5%, 5.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Colegiales win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Club Atlético Güemes 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Colegiales 37.6%
- xG · Club Atlético Güemes 1.25 — Colegiales 1.35
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Club Atlético Güemes 3.46 · Draw 3.17 · Colegiales 2.25
- Implied 1X2 · Club Atlético Güemes 27.6% · Draw 30.1% · Colegiales 42.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Club Atlético Güemes 3.48 · Draw 3.10 · Colegiales 2.27
- Implied 1X2 · Club Atlético Güemes 27.4% · Draw 30.7% · Colegiales 41.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Colegiales win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
72/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.48
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Colegiales win · Club Atlético Güemes 0–1 Colegiales
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.0898,
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{
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.4%",
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},
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"alignment": {
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colegiales at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colegiales as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colegiales",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.49,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"steam_team": "Colegiales",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2098,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colegiales at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colegiales as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colegiales",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes 1.25 xG vs Colegiales 1.35 \u2192 Colegiales 37.5%",
"Market: Colegiales ~41.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Colegiales \u2193 -6.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colegiales with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"market_prob": 27.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.1,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.4,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Colegiales",
"market_prob": 41.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.92,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.92,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.63,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.63,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"market_prob_pct": 27.36,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Colegiales"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes\u0027s win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.4%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Colegiales",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Colegiales \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes 1.25 xG vs Colegiales 1.35 \u2192 Colegiales 37.5%",
"Market: Colegiales ~41.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Colegiales \u2193 -6.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colegiales with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.49,
"hero_label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Colegiales odds shortened \u2193 -6.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Colegiales, with odds shortening by 6.4%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes.",
"note": "Buying interest on Colegiales \u2014 odds shortened by 6.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Colegiales, with odds shortening by 6.4%.",
"Buying interest on Colegiales \u2014 odds shortened by 6.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes.",
"At the same time, Colegiales has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.4%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.5,
"lead": "The model rates Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.49,
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"market_prob_pct": 27.36,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.1,
"edge_pp": -1.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.4,
"edge_pp": -4.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Colegiales",
"market_prob_pct": 41.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Colegiales \u2014 odds shortened by 6.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Colegiales (41.9%).",
"Colegiales has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -6.4%, 5/9).",
"Colegiales \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.74,
"closing_odds": 3.48,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.74,
"entry_odds": 3.48,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 35m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Colegiales (6.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.35",
"2.28",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.42 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 35m",
"pick_team": "Colegiales",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.27,
2.25,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,9.6 37.3,12.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 5/9 sportsbooks on Colegiales",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Colegiales",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Colegiales",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Colegiales",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Colegiales",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "colegiales",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Colegiales",
"away_team_id": 8377,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8377.webp",
"away_team_name": "Colegiales",
"away_team_public_id": "0qV7UaS0NtXeOQ",
"away_team_slug": "colegiales",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498853,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"home_team_id": 3969,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3969.webp",
"home_team_name": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"home_team_public_id": "3ZhjV6RPjjTpj5",
"home_team_slug": "club-atletico-guemes",
"ht.home_team_slug": "club-atletico-guemes",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 20:00:00",
"public_id": "3j7eK5bxOOiikf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Santiago del Estero",
"venue_name": "Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4205,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4194,
"draw": 0.3071,
"home": 0.2736
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.401
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2948,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0034,
"ev": -0.0585,
"implied_prob": 0.3071,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4194,
"draw": 0.3071,
"home": 0.2736
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3037
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2752,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": 0.0048,
"implied_prob": 0.2736,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4194,
"draw": 0.3071,
"home": 0.2736
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2887
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0649,
"ev": -0.1473,
"implied_prob": 0.4405,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.0835,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0413,
"ev": 0.1439,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2114,
"alpha_yes": 0.1922,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0963,
"edge_yes": 0.0963,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.112,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0392,
"implied_no": 0.5513,
"implied_yes": 0.4487,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5317
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4664
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5317,
"p_final_yes": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1534,
"alpha_under": 0.211,
"best_over_odd": 2.51,
"best_under_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.41,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.0992,
"edge_under": -0.0992,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2098,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0391,
"ev_under": -0.1971,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1066,
"implied_over": 0.3828,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3836,
"implied_under": 0.6172,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6164,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3987
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1066,
"implied_prob": 0.6164,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5956
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3987,
"p_final_under": 0.5956,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2098,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2098,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2098,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2098,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colegiales at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colegiales as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colegiales",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Colegiales"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.4477,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5317
},
"p_final": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0392,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4664
}
},
"edge": 0.0963,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.3836,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3987
},
"p_final": 0.3987,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0391,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1066,
"implied_prob": 0.6164,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5956
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0992,
"ev": 0.2098,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498853,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2098,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2098,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2098,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Colegiales",
"home": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498853,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T19:59:30.756882+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 3 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 53 |
| 4 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 5 | Colón de Santa Fe | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 45 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | Atlético Mitre | 32 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 35 |
| 14 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 15 | All Boys | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 33 |
| 16 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 32 | 51 | 32 | +19 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 53 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón de Santa Fe | 32 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 52 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 61 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 32 | 29 | 27 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Atlético Mitre | 32 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 35 |
| 8 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 9 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 45 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 32 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 32 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 32 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 33 |
