The model missed the final outcome (Defensores de Belgrano win 2–1).
The model had projected Deportivo Madryn at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Deportivo Madryn Defensores de Belgrano ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensores de Belgrano | 32.4% | 42.7% | -10.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 33.0% | -3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Deportivo Madryn | 38.0% | 24.3% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Deportivo Madryn's win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.3%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Defensores de Belgrano win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo Madryn.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Deportivo Madryn; match finished Defensores de Belgrano
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo Madryn by 13.7 percentage points (24.3% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Defensores de Belgrano 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Deportivo Madryn 38.0%
- xG · Defensores de Belgrano 1.24 — Deportivo Madryn 1.36
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Defensores de Belgrano 2.23 · Draw 2.88 · Deportivo Madryn 3.92
- Implied 1X2 · Defensores de Belgrano 42.7% · Draw 33.0% · Deportivo Madryn 24.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Defensores de Belgrano 2.23 · Draw 2.88 · Deportivo Madryn 3.92
- Implied 1X2 · Defensores de Belgrano 42.7% · Draw 33.0% · Deportivo Madryn 24.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Defensores de Belgrano win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
10/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.92
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Defensores de Belgrano win · Defensores de Belgrano 2–1 Deportivo Madryn
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
"authority": {
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
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"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Madryn at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.3%.",
"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
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},
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Madryn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo Madryn \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.74 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498801 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.74 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +42.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0801,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25510204081632654,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4908,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+49.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.73,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +35.4%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Madryn",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4219,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4909,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Madryn at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Madryn as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Madryn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo Madryn \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.74 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498801 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.74 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +42.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0801,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25510204081632654,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4908,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+49.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Defensores de Belgrano 1.24 xG vs Deportivo Madryn 1.36 \u2192 Deportivo Madryn 38.0%",
"Market: Defensores de Belgrano ~24.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Madryn odds \u2191 +35.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportivo Madryn, but the market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.29,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"market_prob": 42.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.46,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.73,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"market_prob": 24.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.96,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.96,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.47,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.47,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 13.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Madryn",
"market_prob_pct": 24.28,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Madryn"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Deportivo Madryn\u0027s win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.3%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 13.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Defensores de Belgrano 1.24 xG vs Deportivo Madryn 1.36 \u2192 Deportivo Madryn 38.0%",
"Market: Defensores de Belgrano ~24.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Madryn odds \u2191 +35.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportivo Madryn, but the market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 13.73,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Deportivo Madryn odds lengthened \u2191 +35.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo Madryn.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Madryn.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Deportivo Madryn.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Madryn."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Deportivo Madryn more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Deportivo Madryn (\u2191 +35.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/12) supports the current market view on Deportivo Madryn."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"largest_gap_pp": 13.7,
"lead": "The model rates Deportivo Madryn considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.29,
"edge_pp": -10.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"market_prob_pct": 42.68,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.46,
"edge_pp": -3.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.05,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.73,
"edge_pp": 13.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"market_prob_pct": 24.28,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Madryn.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Defensores de Belgrano (24.3%).",
"However, Deportivo Madryn has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +35.4%, 9/12) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo Madryn, Market \u2192 Defensores de Belgrano, while Deportivo Madryn odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.51,
"closing_odds": 3.92,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.51,
"entry_odds": 3.92,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +38.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 38.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +35.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +34.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 34.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +32.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 32.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +35.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 35.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 8m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/12 books lengthened Deportivo Madryn together (35.4% drift, score 62) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 35.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.92",
"3.40",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.92 \u2192 2.78 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 8m",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Madryn",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.92"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.78"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.88,
3.92,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,0.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.88,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Deportivo Madryn odds \u2191 +35.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Madryn",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Deportivo Madryn odds \u2191 +35.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +35.4%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"summary": "Market moved away from Deportivo Madryn while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Deportivo Madryn",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +35.4%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Madryn",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Madryn",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-madryn",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Madryn",
"away_team_id": 1929,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1929.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Madryn",
"away_team_public_id": "54gK0IhLKD9lu8",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-madryn",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498801,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"home_team_id": 1067,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1067.webp",
"home_team_name": "Defensores de Belgrano",
"home_team_public_id": "1QXpf5BAyqeXRH",
"home_team_slug": "defensores-de-belgrano",
"ht.home_team_slug": "defensores-de-belgrano",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 18:30:00",
"public_id": "1TcbHIQ0waISN7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Belgrano",
"venue_name": "Estadio Juan Pasquale"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2381,
"best_odd": 3.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0328,
"ev": 0.0801,
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2428,
"draw": 0.3305,
"home": 0.4268
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.2755
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4267,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.0907,
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2428,
"draw": 0.3305,
"home": 0.4268
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3157
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3804,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.4268,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2428,
"draw": 0.3305,
"home": 0.4268
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3876
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.92,
"edge": 0.1252,
"ev": 0.4909,
"implied_prob": 0.2551,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": -0.0513,
"ev": -0.1477,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.1247,
"ev": -0.2781,
"implied_prob": 0.4484,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.207,
"alpha_yes": 0.1506,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1347,
"edge_yes": 0.1347,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2613,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1209,
"ev_yes": 0.2947,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0309,
"implied_no": 0.5907,
"implied_yes": 0.4093,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1209,
"implied_prob": 0.5916,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5635
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1506,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.4084,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4288
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.5635,
"p_final_yes": 0.4288,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1465,
"alpha_under": 0.2014,
"best_over_odd": 2.95,
"best_under_odd": 1.45,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.735,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1496,
"edge_under": -0.1496,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4219,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0316,
"ev_under": -0.2489,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1327,
"implied_over": 0.3324,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3321,
"implied_under": 0.6676,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6679,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1465,
"best_odd": 2.735,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": -0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.3321,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3541
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0302,
"ev": -0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.6679,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6377
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3541,
"p_final_under": 0.6377,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4219,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4909,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4219,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4219,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4909,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Madryn at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Madryn as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Madryn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo Madryn \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.74 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498801 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.74 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +42.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Deportivo Madryn, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Madryn.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0801,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25510204081632654,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4908,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+49.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0328,
"ev": 0.0801,
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportivo Madryn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1506,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0204,
"market_prob": 0.4084,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0281,
"ev": -0.1209,
"implied_prob": 0.5916,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5635
},
"p_final": 0.4288,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0309,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1506,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.4084,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4288
}
},
"edge": 0.1347,
"ev": 0.2947,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1465,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.735,
"edge": 0.022,
"market_prob": 0.3321,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1465,
"best_odd": 2.735,
"edge": 0.022,
"ev": -0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.3321,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3541
},
"p_final": 0.3541,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0316,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2014,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0302,
"ev": -0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.6679,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6377
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1496,
"ev": 0.4219,
"implied_prob": 0.3324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498801,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4219,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4219,
"implied_prob": 0.3324,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4219,
"implied_prob": 0.3324,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Madryn",
"home": "Defensores de Belgrano"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.160317,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2947,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0801,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.92,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25510204081632654,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4908,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+49.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498801,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T18:29:07.264935+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
