AI correctly predicted the San Martín de San Juan win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 San Martín de San Juan San Martín de San Juan ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín de San Juan | 41.4% | 49.2% | -7.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 29.8% | -0.5 pp | Aligned |
| Midland | 29.2% | 21.0% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Midland's win probability at 29.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.0%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (San Martín de San Juan win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Midland.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced San Martín de San Juan more conservatively (33.1% vs model 41.4%, 8.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (San Martín de San Juan win 3–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Martín de San Juan 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Midland 29.3%
- xG · San Martín de San Juan 1.43 — Midland 1.17
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Martín de San Juan 1.93 · Draw 3.18 · Midland 4.52
- Implied 1X2 · San Martín de San Juan 49.2% · Draw 29.8% · Midland 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · San Martín de San Juan 1.93 · Draw 3.18 · Midland 4.52
- Implied 1X2 · San Martín de San Juan 49.2% · Draw 29.8% · Midland 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Martín de San Juan win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
58/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
San Martín de San Juan win · San Martín de San Juan 3–2 Midland
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.1308,
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"text": "-13.1%"
},
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},
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},
{
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"alert_team": "Midland",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.3,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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{
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"label": "Agree",
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn de San Juan)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn de San Juan at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn de San Juan as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn de San Juan).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1308,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4917,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2016,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "10/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.26,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.17,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.43,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"steam_team": "Midland",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn de San Juan).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn de San Juan)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn de San Juan)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn de San Juan at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn de San Juan as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn de San Juan).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1308,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4917,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2016,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Mart\u00edn de San Juan 1.43 xG vs Midland 1.17 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn de San Juan 41.4%",
"Market: San Mart\u00edn de San Juan ~49.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Midland odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Mart\u00edn de San Juan with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.77,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"market_prob": 49.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.48,
"fair_prob": 29.36,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.26,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Midland",
"market_prob": 20.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.67,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.67,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.37,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.37,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Midland",
"market_prob_pct": 20.99,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Midland"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Midland\u0027s win probability at 29.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.0%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.8,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Mart\u00edn de San Juan 1.43 xG vs Midland 1.17 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn de San Juan 41.4%",
"Market: San Mart\u00edn de San Juan ~49.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Midland odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Mart\u00edn de San Juan with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.26,
"hero_label": "Midland",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Midland odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Midland.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Midland.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Midland.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Midland."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Midland.",
"Recent line movement on Midland (\u2191 +25.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/13) supports the current market view on Midland."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Midland",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.3,
"lead": "The model rates Midland considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.77,
"edge_pp": -7.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"market_prob_pct": 49.17,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.48,
"edge_pp": -0.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.84,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.26,
"edge_pp": 8.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Midland",
"market_prob_pct": 20.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Midland.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Mart\u00edn de San Juan (49.2%).",
"However, Midland has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 10/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"San Mart\u00edn de San Juan \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 22.12,
"closing_odds": 4.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 22.12,
"entry_odds": 4.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"10/13 books lengthened Midland together (25.0% drift, score 62) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.28",
"3.80"
],
"display": "4.75 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 3m",
"pick_team": "Midland",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
4.52,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,4.4 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Midland odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Midland",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Midland odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Midland",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/13",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Midland",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Midland",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Midland",
"away_team_id": 1963,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1963.webp",
"away_team_name": "Midland",
"away_team_public_id": "1HSawS3NOcQbDt",
"away_team_slug": "midland",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498788,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"home_team_id": 461,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/461.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"home_team_public_id": "5A6IjoayktbKe0",
"home_team_slug": "san-martin-s-j",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 18:30:00",
"public_id": "5FBtybhmqR5KBy",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "San Juan",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1752,
"best_odd": 4.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": 0.0145,
"implied_prob": 0.2099,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2099,
"draw": 0.2984,
"home": 0.4917
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.2244
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2978,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0014,
"ev": -0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.2984,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2099,
"draw": 0.2984,
"home": 0.4917
},
"model_prob": 0.2936,
"p_final": 0.297
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5298,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1308,
"implied_prob": 0.4917,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2099,
"draw": 0.2984,
"home": 0.4917
},
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"p_final": 0.4504
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.52,
"edge": 0.0715,
"ev": 0.3231,
"implied_prob": 0.2212,
"model_prob": 0.2927
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.2936
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.1044,
"ev": -0.2016,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.4137
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2039,
"alpha_yes": 0.1483,
"best_no_odd": 1.58,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1437,
"edge_yes": 0.1437,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2748,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1228,
"ev_yes": 0.3525,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0286,
"implied_no": 0.6027,
"implied_yes": 0.3973,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.6026,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5733
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4187
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5733,
"p_final_yes": 0.4187,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1469,
"alpha_under": 0.2019,
"best_over_odd": 2.88,
"best_under_odd": 1.42,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.4,
"edge_over": 0.1467,
"edge_under": -0.1467,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3882,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0055,
"ev_under": -0.2644,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1087,
"implied_over": 0.3353,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3333,
"implied_under": 0.6647,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6667,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0055,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3552
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2019,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.6667,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6366
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3552,
"p_final_under": 0.6366,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn de San Juan)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3882,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn de San Juan at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn de San Juan as the value side (41.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +38.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +38.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+38.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn de San Juan).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1308,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4917,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2016,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.26
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2936,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.26
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1308,
"implied_prob": 0.4917,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0213,
"market_prob": 0.3974,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2039,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1228,
"implied_prob": 0.6026,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5733
},
"p_final": 0.4187,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0286,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1483,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0286,
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4187
}
},
"edge": 0.1437,
"ev": 0.3525,
"implied_prob": 0.3973,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.3333,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0055,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3552
},
"p_final": 0.3552,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0055,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2019,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.1087,
"implied_prob": 0.6667,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6366
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1467,
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498788,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3882,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2927,
"draw": 0.2936,
"home": 0.4137
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3353,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Midland",
"home": "San Mart\u00edn de San Juan"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.190702,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3525,
"implied_prob": 0.3973,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1308,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4917,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4137,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2016,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498788,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T18:29:12.285642+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
