AI correctly predicted the Deportivo Madryn win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Deportivo Madryn Deportivo Madryn ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Madryn | 40.4% | 55.5% | -15.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 28.2% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 30.1% | 16.3% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Deportivo Madryn's win probability at 55.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Deportivo Madryn win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Madryn than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Deportivo Madryn higher (55.4% vs model 40.4%, 15.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Deportivo Madryn win 3–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Madryn 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Ciudad de Bolívar 30.1%
- xG · Deportivo Madryn 1.41 — Ciudad de Bolívar 1.19
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Madryn 1.71 · Draw 3.36 · Ciudad de Bolívar 5.81
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Madryn 55.5% · Draw 28.2% · Ciudad de Bolívar 16.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Madryn 1.71 · Draw 3.36 · Ciudad de Bolívar 5.81
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Madryn 55.5% · Draw 28.2% · Ciudad de Bolívar 16.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Madryn win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
24/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.71
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Deportivo Madryn win · Deportivo Madryn 3–1 Ciudad de Bolívar
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"ev": -0.1709,
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{
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],
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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],
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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},
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"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
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"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Madryn at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.5%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Madryn as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
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},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Madryn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo Madryn \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498784 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +35.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Deportivo Madryn), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1709,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5847953216374269,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3078,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "10/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9090909090909091,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.1,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.04,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.04,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.41,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Madryn",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Deportivo Madryn), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Deportivo Madryn), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.355,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7497,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Madryn at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Madryn as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Madryn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo Madryn \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498784 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +35.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Deportivo Madryn), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1709,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5847953216374269,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3078,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Madryn 1.41 xG vs Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar 1.19 \u2192 Deportivo Madryn 40.4%",
"Market: Deportivo Madryn ~55.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Madryn +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Deportivo Madryn, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.04,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"market_prob": 55.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.22,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.82,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar",
"market_prob": 16.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.64,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.0,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 39.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.0,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 60.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Madryn",
"market_prob_pct": 55.46,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Madryn"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Deportivo Madryn\u0027s win probability at 55.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.04,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 55.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-15.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -15.1,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-15.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -15.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Deportivo Madryn \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (-15.1 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Madryn 1.41 xG vs Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar 1.19 \u2192 Deportivo Madryn 40.4%",
"Market: Deportivo Madryn ~55.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Madryn +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Deportivo Madryn, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.04,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Deportivo Madryn is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Madryn than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Madryn than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Madryn than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Deportivo Madryn is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Deportivo Madryn more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Deportivo Madryn (pricing gap 15.0 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.04,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Deportivo Madryn higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.04,
"edge_pp": -15.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Madryn",
"market_prob_pct": 55.46,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.22,
"edge_pp": 1.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.22,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.82,
"edge_pp": 13.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar",
"market_prob_pct": 16.32,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Madryn than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Madryn (55.5%).",
"Deportivo Madryn \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (-15.1 pp)."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.48,
"closing_odds": 1.71,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.48,
"entry_odds": 1.71,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/11",
"current_odds": 1.65,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.65,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Madryn",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Madryn",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar",
"away_team_id": 16612,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16612.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar",
"away_team_public_id": "46MWM5fe6WTR8o",
"away_team_slug": "ciudad-de-bolivar",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498784,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Madryn",
"home_team_id": 1929,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1929.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Madryn",
"home_team_public_id": "54gK0IhLKD9lu8",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-madryn",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 19:00:00",
"public_id": "12QQWA92DtFzF5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Puerto Madryn",
"venue_name": "Estadio Abel Sastre"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1586,
"best_odd": 5.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": 0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.1632,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1632,
"draw": 0.2822,
"home": 0.5546
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.1851
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2947,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0035,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.2822,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1632,
"draw": 0.2822,
"home": 0.5546
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2857
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4652,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0697,
"ev": -0.1709,
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1632,
"draw": 0.2822,
"home": 0.5546
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4849
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.81,
"edge": 0.129,
"ev": 0.7497,
"implied_prob": 0.1721,
"model_prob": 0.3012
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": -0.0036,
"ev": -0.0119,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.18,
"ev": -0.3078,
"implied_prob": 0.5848,
"model_prob": 0.4048
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.192,
"alpha_yes": 0.1396,
"best_no_odd": 1.55,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.15,
"edge_yes": 0.15,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2901,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1231,
"ev_yes": 0.355,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0307,
"implied_no": 0.608,
"implied_yes": 0.392,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.192,
"best_odd": 1.515,
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6075,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5788
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1396,
"best_odd": 2.345,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0307,
"implied_prob": 0.3925,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4134
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5788,
"p_final_yes": 0.4134,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.156,
"alpha_under": 0.2145,
"best_over_odd": 2.63,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.47,
"edge_over": 0.1164,
"edge_under": -0.1164,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2677,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0213,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1042,
"implied_over": 0.3656,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3657,
"implied_under": 0.6344,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6343,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.3657,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3838
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.025,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.6343,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6094
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3838,
"p_final_under": 0.6094,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.355,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7497,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.355,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Deportivo Madryn), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.355,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7497,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 50,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Madryn at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 55.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Madryn as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Madryn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Deportivo Madryn \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498784 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +35.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +35.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +35.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +35.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+35.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Deportivo Madryn), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1709,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5847953216374269,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3078,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.1632,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0697,
"ev": -0.1709,
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Madryn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1396,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.345,
"edge": 0.0209,
"market_prob": 0.3925,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.192,
"best_odd": 1.515,
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.1231,
"implied_prob": 0.6075,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5788
},
"p_final": 0.4134,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0307,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1396,
"best_odd": 2.345,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0307,
"implied_prob": 0.3925,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4134
}
},
"edge": 0.15,
"ev": 0.355,
"implied_prob": 0.392,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0181,
"market_prob": 0.3657,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.3657,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3838
},
"p_final": 0.3838,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0213,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.025,
"ev": -0.1042,
"implied_prob": 0.6343,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6094
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1164,
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3656,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498784,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.355,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3012,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.4048
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3656,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3656,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar",
"home": "Deportivo Madryn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.19241,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.355,
"implied_prob": 0.392,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1709,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.71,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5546,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5847953216374269,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3078,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498784,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T18:59:35.957059+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón de Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing de Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
