Pronóstico confiable
Resumen:
Ambos se inclinan por Temperley, pero el mercado les pone un precio más alto (45.2% vs modelo 38.0%). La ventaja sigue siendo modesta y el partido permanece relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
La estimación justa muestra una modesta ventaja sobre el precio actual de mercado en Club Atlético Güemes.
Sin embargo, Temperley ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Temperley.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperley | 38.01% | 45.21% | -7.2 pp |
| Empate | 29.59% | 32.13% | -2.5 pp |
| Club Atlético Güemes | 32.39% | 22.66% | +9.7 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
Temperley market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Temperley
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
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"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3882,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0288,
"ev": -0.1322,
"implied_prob": 0.4521,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Temperley"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1412,
"ev": 0.2947,
"implied_prob": 0.4028,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1432,
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3388,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498612,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3882,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3388,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3882,
"implied_prob": 0.3388,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"home": "Temperley"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.160317,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2947,
"implied_prob": 0.4028,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498612,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T05:38:22.226288+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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