Sí 54.4% · No 45.6%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -35.2%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Evaluación de pronóstico
Pronóstico confiable
- Favorito
- Deportivo Moron Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 38.5%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 29.5%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Moderado
- Validación
- Aprobar
- Mayor brecha
- Deportivo Moron +9.0 pp
- Amplitud
- 12/12
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa y el precio de mercado difieren modestamente. Monitorear antes del inicio.
Evaluación de mercado
La estimación justa muestra una modesta ventaja sobre el precio actual de mercado en Deportivo Moron.
Sin embargo, Ciudad de Bolívar ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Ciudad de Bolívar.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 31.94% | 32.68% | -0.7 pp |
| Empate | 29.57% | 37.81% | -8.2 pp |
| Deportivo Moron | 38.49% | 29.51% | +9.0 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Deportivo Moron · Probabilidad del modelo 38.5%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 29.5%
EV línea de consenso: -1.3%
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +25%+ ·
EV inferior -35.2%
(10 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -35.2%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -35.2%
Ciudad de Bolívar market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Ciudad de Bolívar
- Odds move
- 2.80 → 2.80 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 12/12
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Monitoreo del mercado
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 3.1
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"league_country": "Argentina",
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"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
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"league_season": 2026,
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"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2597,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0233,
"ev": -0.0132,
"implied_prob": 0.2951,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3183
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3924,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.3811,
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3477
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4471,
"best_odd": 2.825,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0907,
"implied_prob": 0.3238,
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3219
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.42,
"best_yes_odd": 3.0,
"edge_no": -0.2113,
"edge_yes": 0.2113,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3525,
"ev_yes": 0.632,
"implied_no": 0.6673,
"implied_yes": 0.3327,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 4.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.25,
"edge_over": 0.2466,
"edge_under": -0.2466,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 1.0967,
"ev_under": -0.3525,
"implied_over": 0.2354,
"implied_under": 0.7646,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.0967,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0233,
"ev": -0.0132,
"implied_prob": 0.2951,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportivo Moron"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2113,
"ev": 0.632,
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2466,
"ev": 1.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.2354,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498600,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.0967,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.632,
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.632,
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Moron",
"home": "Ciudad de Bol\u00edvar"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.370027,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.2354,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498600,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:47:10.843196+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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