Sí 54.4% · No 45.6%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -31.6%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Gimnasia Y Tiro Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 38.5%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 22.8%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Gimnasia Y Tiro +15.7 pp
- Amplitud
- 10/10
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
La estimación estadística justa es materialmente más alta que el mercado en Gimnasia Y Tiro.
Sin embargo, Quilmes ha visto una desviación: las probabilidades aumentaron con 0.0%, lo que sugiere un debilitamiento del soporte.
La actividad del mercado se concentra actualmente en Quilmes.
- El modelo puede ver un enfrentamiento más lento o más igualado que el mercado.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes | 31.94% | 43.76% | -11.8 pp |
| Empate | 29.57% | 33.41% | -3.8 pp |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 38.49% | 22.83% | +15.7 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Valor posible en 1X2: Gimnasia Y Tiro (+1.5% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Convicción moderada (6.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
Casa de apuestas premium 1xBet: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promocional 1x_3342271. Registrarse
Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Gimnasia Y Tiro · Probabilidad del modelo 38.5%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 22.8%
EV línea de consenso: +1.5%
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +25%+ ·
EV inferior -29.0%
(8 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -31.6%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +25%+ · EV No -31.6%
Quilmes market context before kickoff
⚠️ Mercado volátil on Quilmes
- Odds move
- 2.10 → 2.10 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 10/10
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 4.03
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"title": "Forecast Assessment",
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],
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},
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"paragraphs": [
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],
"show": true,
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},
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},
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"match": {
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"country_name": "Argentina",
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"goals_home": null,
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"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 20:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Quilmes",
"venue_name": "Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1531,
"best_odd": 4.025,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": 0.0152,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.2522
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4242,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1258,
"implied_prob": 0.3341,
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3179
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3703,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0437,
"ev": -0.1729,
"implied_prob": 0.4376,
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3938
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.5,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"edge_no": -0.168,
"edge_yes": 0.168,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.316,
"ev_yes": 0.36,
"implied_no": 0.624,
"implied_yes": 0.376,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.37,
"edge_over": 0.1812,
"edge_under": -0.1812,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6388,
"ev_under": -0.2903,
"implied_over": 0.3008,
"implied_under": 0.6992,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6388,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": 0.0152,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Gimnasia Y Tiro"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.168,
"ev": 0.36,
"implied_prob": 0.376,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1812,
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.3008,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498610,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6388,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.36,
"implied_prob": 0.376,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.36,
"implied_prob": 0.376,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gimnasia Y Tiro",
"home": "Quilmes"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.215531,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6388,
"implied_prob": 0.3008,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498610,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T09:52:42.401492+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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