Sí 54.3% · No 45.7%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí -13.1% · EV No +2.8%
Lectura de valor: BTTS No
Evaluación de predicción
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- Orange County SC Partido equilibrado
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 39.9%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 28.6%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
Tanto la marca como el mercado se inclinan hacia el {equipo}, pero ninguno indica un favorito dominante. El empate y el {segundo} siguen siendo plausibles: este es un partido relativamente abierto.
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Inteligencia de movimientos de mercado
- movimiento actual
- Orange County SC ↓ -3.6% 3.36 → 3.24
- Tipo de movimiento
- ⚡ Movimiento liderado por sharp
- Puntuación de vapor
- 34C
Limited conviction - Amplitud del mercado
- 4/7
- Fase
- Reajuste agresivo
- Libro de referencia
- Pinnacle
- validación CLV
- Waiting for Close
Movimiento con mayor consenso
Camino de probabilidades — Orange County SC
🐢 Desplazamiento lento durante 23h 59m
Abierto
3.36
Bajo/Alto
3.10
Actual
3.24
Narrativa de mercado
Pinnacle lideró el repricing en Orange County SC (3.6%) — casa sharp movió antes del seguimiento más amplio.
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- Las Vegas Lights -14.7 pp
- Amplitud
- 4/7
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Las probabilidades de {equipo} se acortaron ↓ -3.6%.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
El mercado es materialmente más optimista sobre Las Vegas Lights que la estimación justa actual.
Sin embargo, el interés de compra reciente ha estado en Orange County SC, y las probabilidades se han reducido en 3.6%.
Interés de compra en Orange County SC: probabilidades reducidas en 3.6%.
- Es posible que los inversores estén incorporando información que no se refleja plenamente en el modelo de referencia.
- El contexto específico del torneo puede cambiar los precios del mercado.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Lights | 30.58% | 45.28% | -14.7 pp |
| Empate | 29.48% | 26.17% | +3.3 pp |
| Orange County SC | 39.94% | 28.55% | +11.4 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Sin valor en 1X2 ({lado} frente a las probabilidades actuales)
- Valor posible: Menos de 2.5 (+8.3% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Borde delgado: BTTS No (+2.8% - debajo de la barra de tamaño predeterminada)
Convicción moderada (5.5/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Menos de 2.5
— Valor
Orange County SC · Probabilidad del modelo 40.0%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 28.5%
EV línea de consenso: -0.2%
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 12.5%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Valor selectivo — Al menos un mercado rastreado puede alcanzar +EV con las mejores probabilidades, pero la convicción es limitada (5.5/10): tamaño reducido.
Fuerza de la decisión: 5.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado -17.6% ·
EV inferior +8.3%
(4 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -13.1% · EV No +2.8%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -13.1% · EV No +2.8%
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Predicción generada
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 2.0
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"Buying interest on Orange County SC \u2014 odds shortened by 3.6%."
],
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"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
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],
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"points": [
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{
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{
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},
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"page_alert_line": "",
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"pick_team": "Orange County SC",
"ref_book": "Pinnacle",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 3.24,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"open_odds": 3.36,
"pick_team": "Orange County SC",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Orange County SC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4007,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4007.webp",
"away_team_name": "Orange County SC",
"country_code": "US",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493704,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_id": 3998,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3998.webp",
"home_team_name": "Las Vegas Lights",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_id": 255,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/255.webp",
"league_name": "USL Championship",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-21 02:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Cashman Field"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2486,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": -0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2855,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.3139
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2851,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.2617,
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2711
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3506,
"best_odd": 2.005,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0516,
"ev": -0.1956,
"implied_prob": 0.4528,
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.4012
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"edge_no": 0.0438,
"edge_yes": -0.0438,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0283,
"ev_yes": -0.1475,
"implied_no": 0.4132,
"implied_yes": 0.5868,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.71,
"best_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.0708,
"edge_under": 0.0708,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1758,
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"implied_over": 0.5528,
"implied_under": 0.4472,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": -0.0018,
"implied_prob": 0.2855,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Orange County SC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0438,
"ev": 0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.4132,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0708,
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.4472,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493704,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0982,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3056
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Orange County SC",
"home": "Las Vegas Lights"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.035607,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.4472,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493704,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T07:40:24.266468+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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