Evaluación de pronóstico
Tenga cuidado
- Favorito
- St Patrick's Athl. Favorito dominante
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 88.1%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 71.4%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
Resumen:
El modelo y el mercado se inclinan del mismo lado hacia St Patrick's Athl., pero las diferencias de precios justifican la precaución.
Inicia sesión para ver el veredicto completo de apuestas
Regístrate gratis para desbloquear el veredicto final de apuestas: qué mercados pasan, dónde puede existir +EV y advertencias de steam.
Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Débil
- Validación
- Advertencia
- Mayor brecha
- St Patrick's Athl. +16.8 pp
- Amplitud
- 8/8
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
La estimación justa difiere notablemente de los precios actuales del mercado. Esto puede reflejar un desacuerdo genuino o entradas de calificación incompletas.
Evaluación de mercado
La estimación estadística justa es materialmente más alta que el mercado en St Patrick's Athl..
La actividad del mercado se alinea con la mayor brecha de precios en St Patrick's Athl..
- El modelo puede ver un enfrentamiento más lento o más igualado que el mercado.
- Monitorear el movimiento de la línea antes del inicio: no es una recomendación para apostar.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Patrick's Athl. | 88.12% | 71.37% | +16.8 pp |
| Empate | 9.29% | 18.93% | -9.6 pp |
| Sligo Rovers | 2.59% | 9.69% | -7.1 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Valor posible en 1X2: St Patrick's Athl. (+2.6% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: Más de 2.5 (+25%+ EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Valor posible: BTTS No (+5.5% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí -17.7% · EV No +5.5%
St Patrick's Athl. market context before kickoff
— Seguimiento on St Patrick's Athl.
- Odds move
- 1.30 → 1.30 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 8/8
- Steam score
- 40 (B)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: Advertencia de validación del modelo
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 1.3
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Dublin",
"venue_name": "Richmond Park"
},
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],
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},
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"draw": {
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"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0165,
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"ev_available": true,
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},
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"edge_yes": -0.0566,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0551,
"ev_yes": -0.1766,
"implied_no": 0.5604,
"implied_yes": 0.4396,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": 0.1705,
"edge_under": -0.1705,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.253,
"ev_under": -0.4036,
"implied_over": 0.5455,
"implied_under": 0.4545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.71,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.253,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.383,
"draw_prob": 0.0926,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.8816,
"over_prob": 0.716,
"total_xg": 3.71,
"under_prob": 0.284,
"xg_diff": 2.71
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0754,
"ev": 0.0258,
"implied_prob": 0.7137,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.8816,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athl."
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0566,
"ev": 0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.5604,
"model_prob": 0.617,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1705,
"ev": 0.253,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.716,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492719,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.253,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.0258,
"draw": 0.0926,
"home": 0.8816
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sligo Rovers",
"home": "St Patrick\u0027s Athl."
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.181148,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.253,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.716,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492719,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T13:28:06.089961+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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