Galway United · Probabilidad del modelo 67.6%
Consenso de mercado (3 vías) 30.6%
EV línea de consenso: +10.1%
Evaluación de pronóstico
Riesgo de avería del modelo
- Favorito
- Galway United Favorito
- Probabilidad del modelo
- 67.6%
- Probabilidad de mercado
- 30.6%
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Muy débil
- Validación
- Fallar
Resumen:
No interprete la comparación entre modelo y mercado hasta que pase la validación.
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Auditoría de Mercado
- Acuerdo de mercado
- Muy débil
- Validación
- Fallar
- Mayor brecha
- Galway United +37.0 pp
- Amplitud
- 8/8
- Actividad actual del mercado
- Aún no hay ningún movimiento direccional significativo.
El modelo y el mercado difieren en 37.0 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
| Resultado | Justo | Mercado | Borde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United | 67.58% | 30.55% | +37.0 pp |
| Empate | 20.07% | 28.94% | -8.9 pp |
| Derry City | 12.35% | 40.51% | -28.2 pp |
Probabilidad justa del modelo estadístico Poisson/xG. No probabilidades de casas de apuestas. No es un consejo de apuestas.
Riesgo de avería del modelo
El modelo y el mercado difieren en 37.0 puntos porcentuales. El resultado del modelo puede no ser confiable para este emparejamiento: valide las entradas antes de interpretar las probabilidades.
- Detectada divergencia extrema entre modelos y mercados.
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Selección principal (mayor +EV)
Más de 2.5
— Valor
Sí 55.7% · No 44.3%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +1.4% · EV No -11.4%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Más probable
2-0
Probabilidad 10.4%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 7.5 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +25%+ ·
EV inferior -33.8%
(6 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +1.4% · EV No -11.4%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +1.4% · EV No -11.4%
Galway United market context before kickoff
— Seguimiento on Galway United
- Odds move
- 3.13 → 3.13 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 8/8
- Steam score
- 40 (B)
- Current status
- Tracked markets may still show +EV at best odds.
Steam detected. Model value still remains on tracked markets — compare EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Ciclo de vida de decisión
Etapa actual: La validación del modelo falló
- Pronóstico generado
- Mercado comparado
- Validación aprobada
- Cierre grabado
- CLV evaluado
- Entrada
- 3.05
- Cierre
- Pendiente
- CLV
- Pendiente
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.2.0
Perfeccionado de forma continua con el rendimiento del modelo, datos de mercado y resultados históricos.
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.1235,
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"home_win_prob": 0.6758,
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"over_25_prob": 0.633,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "Winner : Galway United",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Derry City"
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"away_xg": 0.93,
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"main_pick_meta": {
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"edge": 0.3707,
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"market": "1X2",
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"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
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{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
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"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 3.05
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
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{
"affi_link": null,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
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{
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"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.3
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
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"key": "1X",
"label": "Galway United or Draw",
"prob": 87.7
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Galway United or Derry City",
"prob": 79.9
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{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Derry City",
"prob": 32.4
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"draw_pct": 20.1,
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"lean_label": "Galway United"
},
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"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
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"over_prob": 63.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.2,
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"total_expected": 3.26,
"under_prob": 36.8
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"closing_line_bundle": {
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"most_likely": {
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"prob": 10.4
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"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
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"text": "+25%+"
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "-33.8%"
},
"featured": true,
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"sort_key": 10444.48,
"tier": "best",
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{
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"ev_display": {
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"sort_key": 10091.08,
"tier": "best"
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{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.114,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.4,
"text": "-11.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0137,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.4,
"text": "+1.4%"
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"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "lean",
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 37.0,
"has_alert": false,
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"market_prob_pct": 30.6,
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"model_prob_pct": 67.6,
"model_team": "Galway United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2717",
"status_key": "disagrees",
"status_label": "Model breakdown risk",
"status_line": "Market disagrees with model",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 37.03,
"fair_prob": 67.58,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob": 30.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.87,
"fair_prob": 20.07,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
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{
"edge_pp": -28.16,
"fair_prob": 12.35,
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"market_prob": 40.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.99,
"fair_prob": 63.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.99,
"fair_prob": 36.8,
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"market_prob": 53.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.27,
"fair_prob": 55.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.43,
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"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.27,
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"market_prob": 47.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 37.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 67.58,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Galway United",
"market_prob_pct": 30.55,
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"steam_team_name": "Galway United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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"edge_status": "model_breakdown_risk",
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"suppress_hero": true,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"divergence_level": "breakdown",
"divergence_level_label": "Model breakdown risk",
"divergence_note": "The model and market differ by 37.0 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup \u2014 validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.",
"divergence_tier": "breakdown",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Galway United",
"headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_prob_pct": 30.6,
"model_prob_pct": 67.6,
"paragraphs": [
"Model and market diverge materially. Treat model probabilities as unreliable until inputs are validated."
],
"reliability_headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"reliability_icon": "\u2717",
"reliability_tier": "breakdown",
"summary": "Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.",
"tier": "breakdown",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Fail"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 37.03,
"hero_label": "Galway United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "very_weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 37.03,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_fail",
"status": "fail"
},
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 47.5 pp (at 67.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 47.5,
"max_prob_pct": 67.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 37.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 67.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob_pct": 30.55,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.94,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 12.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Derry City",
"market_prob_pct": 40.51,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"status_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Derry City (30.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Galway United, Market \u2192 Derry City, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "model_validation_failed",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Model validation failed",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.79,
"entry_odds": 3.05,
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"model_validation_status": "fail",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "lost"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.13,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.13,
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Galway United",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 37.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 670,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/670.webp",
"away_team_name": "Derry City",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492718,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_id": 3851,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3851.webp",
"home_team_name": "Galway United",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Premier Division",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-19 18:45:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Galway",
"venue_name": "Eamonn Deacy Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2599,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0732,
"ev": -0.2366,
"implied_prob": 0.4051,
"model_prob": 0.1235,
"p_final": 0.3319
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2601,
"best_odd": 3.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.023,
"ev": -0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.2894,
"model_prob": 0.2008,
"p_final": 0.2663
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.15,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0555,
"ev": 0.1012,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"p_final": 0.361
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"edge_no": -0.0327,
"edge_yes": 0.0327,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.114,
"ev_yes": 0.0137,
"implied_no": 0.4757,
"implied_yes": 0.5243,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"edge_over": 0.1699,
"edge_under": -0.1699,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3272,
"ev_under": -0.3376,
"implied_over": 0.4621,
"implied_under": 0.5379,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.26,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3272,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.557,
"draw_prob": 0.2008,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6757,
"over_prob": 0.632,
"total_xg": 3.26,
"under_prob": 0.368,
"xg_diff": 1.4
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0555,
"ev": 0.1012,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Galway United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0327,
"ev": 0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.5243,
"model_prob": 0.557,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1699,
"ev": 0.3272,
"implied_prob": 0.4621,
"model_prob": 0.632,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492718,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3272,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1235,
"draw": 0.2008,
"home": 0.6757
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1012,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Galway United",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1012,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6757,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Galway United",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Derry City",
"home": "Galway United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.20679,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3272,
"implied_prob": 0.4621,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.632,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492718,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T13:27:59.985099+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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