Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Tenerife vs Almeria

Prediction Audit: Tenerife vs Almeria Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tenerife Tenerife
Aug 23, 2026 - 19:30
1 1.08
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 71%
Almeria Almeria

The model missed the final outcome (Tenerife win 1–0).

The model had projected Almeria at 36.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Almeria Tenerife ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Tenerife -1.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tenerife 32.5% 34.1% -1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 31.5% 30.1% +1.4 pp Aligned
Almeria 36.0% 35.9% +0.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tenerife win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Almeria; match finished Tenerife

Market lesson

The full-time result was Tenerife win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tenerife 32.5% · Draw 31.5% · Almeria 36.0%
    • xG · Tenerife 1.08 — Almeria 1.16
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tenerife 2.84 · Draw 3.22 · Almeria 2.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Tenerife 34.1% · Draw 30.1% · Almeria 35.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tenerife 2.84 · Draw 3.22 · Almeria 2.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Tenerife 34.1% · Draw 30.1% · Almeria 35.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tenerife win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 92/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4371480

Closing Odds 2.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tenerife win · Tenerife 1–0 Almeria
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Tenerife vs Almeria
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.5% · Draw 31.5% · Away 36.0%
  • xG (showing): Tenerife 1.08 — Almeria 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 61.2% · Over 2.5 38.8%); BTTS No (Yes 47.1% · No 52.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.1% · No 52.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castellón 6 5 1 0 16
2 Eibar 6 5 0 1 15
3 Girona 7 4 1 2 13
4 Mallorca 6 4 1 1 13
5 Almeria 6 4 0 2 12
6 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 12
7 Burgos 6 3 2 1 11
8 Leganes 6 3 2 1 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 11
10 Sporting Gijon 6 3 1 2 10
11 Las Palmas 6 3 1 2 10
12 Oviedo 6 2 2 2 8
13 Granada CF 7 2 2 3 8
14 Real Sociedad II 7 2 2 3 8
15 Celta de Vigo II 7 2 2 3 8
16 FC Andorra 7 2 0 5 6
17 Cordoba 6 2 0 4 6
18 Eldense 6 1 2 3 5
19 Valladolid 6 1 2 3 5
20 Cadiz 7 0 4 3 4
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 1 1 5 4
22 Albacete 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Girona 7 14 8 +6 13
2 Castellón 6 12 2 +10 16
3 Eibar 6 12 4 +8 15
4 FC Andorra 7 12 15 -3 6
5 Almeria 6 10 4 +6 12
6 Burgos 6 10 7 +3 11
7 Granada CF 7 10 11 -1 8
8 Real Sociedad II 7 9 10 -1 8
9 Cordoba 6 9 13 -4 6
10 Mallorca 6 8 2 +6 13
11 Sabadell 7 8 6 +2 12
12 Las Palmas 6 8 8 0 10
13 Tenerife 7 8 9 -1 11
14 Celta de Vigo II 7 8 11 -3 8
15 Cadiz 7 7 10 -3 4
16 Leganes 6 6 5 +1 11
17 AD Ceuta FC 7 6 17 -11 4
18 Sporting Gijon 6 5 4 +1 10
19 Oviedo 6 5 4 +1 8
20 Eldense 6 4 8 -4 5
21 Albacete 7 4 12 -8 1
22 Valladolid 6 3 8 -5 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cadiz 7 1.6 0.6 +1.0 4
2 Celta de Vigo II 7 0.6 1.6 -1.0 8
3 Castellón 6 — — — 16
4 Eibar 6 — — — 15
5 Girona 7 — — — 13
6 Mallorca 6 — — — 13
7 Almeria 6 — — — 12
8 Sabadell 7 — — — 12
9 Burgos 6 — — — 11
10 Leganes 6 — — — 11
11 Tenerife 7 — — — 11
12 Sporting Gijon 6 — — — 10
13 Las Palmas 6 — — — 10
14 Oviedo 6 — — — 8
15 Granada CF 7 — — — 8
16 Real Sociedad II 7 — — — 8
17 FC Andorra 7 — — — 6
18 Cordoba 6 — — — 6
19 Eldense 6 — — — 5
20 Valladolid 6 — — — 5
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 — — — 4
22 Albacete 7 — — — 1
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions