1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Castellón
- Model probability
- 38.5%
- Market probability
- 75.0%
- Difference
- -36.6 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -21.6%
No Value Edge
Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction
Model leans Castellón, but the market disagrees — monitor only.
AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet
5.0/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Conflict
Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.
Other factors
- Calibration Risk
Consensus EV
+91.6%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
36.6 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
64/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 38.5% |
| Market (no-vig) | 75.0% |
| Difference | +36.6 pp |
The market has moved away from AD Ceuta FC, but the model still strongly favours Castellón.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+91.6%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Castellón
Risk factors
- ✗Elevated xG uncertaintyModel confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- ✗Market moved against AD Ceuta FC10.0 → 11.0 · ↑ +10.0%
Market Intelligence
Market drift · AD Ceuta FC · ↑ +10.0%
Breadth
4/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +10.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +5.5%
1xBet
↑ +4.5%
Marathonbet
↑ +4.3%
Move Score
44 (B)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseSharp repricing
StatusSharp-led move
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
⚠ Market moved away from AD Ceuta FC while the model still favours another side.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Under 2.5
- Model probability (Under)
- 61.2%
- Market probability (Under)
- 30.9%
- Difference
- +30.3 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- +0.7%
Positive Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (No)
- Lean
- No
- Model probability
- 53.1%
- Market probability
- 45.3%
- Difference
- +7.8 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -4.9%
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 46.9%
BTTS No 53.1%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 13.3%
- Market probability (1-1)
- 7.7%
- Difference
- +5.6 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- +72.9%
Positive Edge
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 13.3%
- 1-0 12.9%
- 0-1 11.0%
- 0-0 10.6%
- 2-1 8.0%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 11.0
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Castellón at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 75.0%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Castellón as the value side (38.5%)
- Market pricing conflicts with the model lean
- Model–market disagreement blocks Primary sizing
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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Spain. Segunda División Predictions
