Prediction Audit: Almeria vs Eldense Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Almeria

Aug 17, 2026 - 19:30

3 1.41

0 1.19

xG Accuracy: 47%

Eldense

AI correctly predicted the Almeria win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Almeria Almeria ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Almeria	40.4%	66.4%	-26.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	19.7%	+9.8 pp	Model Higher
Eldense	30.1%	13.9%	+16.3 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Almeria's win probability at 66.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 26.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Almeria win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Almeria higher (66.4% vs model 40.4%, 26.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Almeria win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 17, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Almeria 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Eldense 30.1%
- xG · Almeria 1.41 — Eldense 1.19
Aug 17, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Almeria 1.44 · Draw 4.86 · Eldense 6.89
- Implied 1X2 · Almeria 66.4% · Draw 19.7% · Eldense 13.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 17, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Almeria 1.44 · Draw 4.86 · Eldense 6.89
- Implied 1X2 · Almeria 66.4% · Draw 19.7% · Eldense 13.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 17, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Almeria win · 3–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (26 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3620212

Closing Odds 1.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Almeria win · Almeria 3–0 Eldense

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Segunda División
Fixture: Almeria vs Eldense
Kickoff: 2026-08-17 19:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Almeria 1.41 — Eldense 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Castellón	6	5	1	0	16
2	Eibar	6	5	0	1	15
3	Girona	7	4	1	2	13
4	Mallorca	6	4	1	1	13
5	Almeria	6	4	0	2	12
6	Sabadell	7	3	3	1	12
7	Burgos	6	3	2	1	11
8	Leganes	6	3	2	1	11
9	Tenerife	7	3	2	2	11
10	Sporting Gijon	6	3	1	2	10
11	Las Palmas	6	3	1	2	10
12	Oviedo	6	2	2	2	8
13	Granada CF	7	2	2	3	8
14	Real Sociedad II	7	2	2	3	8
15	Celta de Vigo II	7	2	2	3	8
16	FC Andorra	7	2	0	5	6
17	Cordoba	6	2	0	4	6
18	Eldense	6	1	2	3	5
19	Valladolid	6	1	2	3	5
20	Cadiz	7	0	4	3	4
21	AD Ceuta FC	7	1	1	5	4
22	Albacete	7	0	1	6	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Girona	7	14	8	+6	13
2	Castellón	6	12	2	+10	16
3	Eibar	6	12	4	+8	15
4	FC Andorra	7	12	15	-3	6
5	Almeria	6	10	4	+6	12
6	Burgos	6	10	7	+3	11
7	Granada CF	7	10	11	-1	8
8	Real Sociedad II	7	9	10	-1	8
9	Cordoba	6	9	13	-4	6
10	Mallorca	6	8	2	+6	13
11	Sabadell	7	8	6	+2	12
12	Las Palmas	6	8	8	0	10
13	Tenerife	7	8	9	-1	11
14	Celta de Vigo II	7	8	11	-3	8
15	Cadiz	7	7	10	-3	4
16	Leganes	6	6	5	+1	11
17	AD Ceuta FC	7	6	17	-11	4
18	Sporting Gijon	6	5	4	+1	10
19	Oviedo	6	5	4	+1	8
20	Eldense	6	4	8	-4	5
21	Albacete	7	4	12	-8	1
22	Valladolid	6	3	8	-5	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cadiz	7	1.6	0.6	+1.0	4
2	Celta de Vigo II	7	0.6	1.6	-1.0	8
3	Castellón	6	—	—	—	16
4	Eibar	6	—	—	—	15
5	Girona	7	—	—	—	13
6	Mallorca	6	—	—	—	13
7	Almeria	6	—	—	—	12
8	Sabadell	7	—	—	—	12
9	Burgos	6	—	—	—	11
10	Leganes	6	—	—	—	11
11	Tenerife	7	—	—	—	11
12	Sporting Gijon	6	—	—	—	10
13	Las Palmas	6	—	—	—	10
14	Oviedo	6	—	—	—	8
15	Granada CF	7	—	—	—	8
16	Real Sociedad II	7	—	—	—	8
17	FC Andorra	7	—	—	—	6
18	Cordoba	6	—	—	—	6
19	Eldense	6	—	—	—	5
20	Valladolid	6	—	—	—	5
21	AD Ceuta FC	7	—	—	—	4
22	Albacete	7	—	—	—	1